Census numbers dropped this week, and although Houston was the second fastest growing major city in the U.S. the last decade, at 9.8% (Phoenix was first at 11.2%), we didn’t quite catch Chicago to officially take over as the 3rd largest city in the U.S. We’ll get ’em next time. Meanwhile, the CPI data this week showed that the sharpest monthly consumer price hikes may be behind us, but inflation is not about to quietly fade away.
Ongoing supply constraints for products and labor, rising costs and renewed risks around COVID weighed on small business optimism in July and on the Wells Fargo Economics team’s outlook for growth, which includes an expectation for a 7.3% annual rate rise in Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) for Q3, down from 8.3% before the COVID Delta variant began its current run.
That is expected to pull PCE back to 8.7% for the year, versus the prior 9.0% expectation. The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 19, 2021
Market attention was concentrated on the January consumer price data, as inflation has come back into focus.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 13, 2021
Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 08, 2022
While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2022
While small business enthusiasm appears to have stalled, as owners are concerned about their ability to continue to pass on higher costs to consumers, cautious enthusiasm around rookie Jeremy Pena’s start persists.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 27, 2022
I’ll wish you a Happy Earth Day anyway. Don’t expect a card this year. While the Earth continues to thankfully revolve at a steady rate, rising mortgage rates appear to be slowing residential activity
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 04, 2023
During January, payrolls jumped by 517K, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.5%-4.75% this week.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 15, 2020
Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 22, 2020
Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2021
In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 06, 2023
This week, Congress and the president prevented what would have been the first default in U.S. history by agreeing to suspend the debt ceiling through the end of 2024.