This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 September 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 10, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 September 2021

While fears of an Evergrande default in China were rattling financial markets, for those of us in Southeast Texas who have survived the typically very hot months of July, August and September, this week brought the very welcome first early fall-like temperatures.  Not quite leaf-color changing or morning frost weather yet, but pleasant temperatures and much lower humidity.  The type of weather that hints at the relief to come.  In much the same way, this week’s FOMC meeting hinted at a forthcoming taper of bond purchases, reflecting their view that the outlook for economic growth for the balance of the year remains bright.




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Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.

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Homebuying retreated in April following a leg up in mortgage rates. Meanwhile, durable goods orders surprised to the upside, suggesting the manufacturing industry is on better footing.

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Just as I know the folks in Florida are resilient and will recover in time, incoming data indicate a slowing yet resilient economy.

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Consumer momentum remains largely intact, inflation continues to inch back down, albeit at a slower pace, and rate-sensitive sectors stayed in a holding pattern.

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Despite indications of lost momentum elsewhere, residential construction activity is picking up steam.

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While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.

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Sales of existing homes fell 2.2% to a 5.38 million-unit pace in September, but sales and prices were still up enough in the quarter that they will add solidly to Q3 GDP growth.

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7 Interest Rate Watch for more detail. In other news, retail sales data disappointed as higher prices factor into spending and industrial activity continued to recover but remains beset by supply issues.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.

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The Producer Price Index (PPI) was a bit firm in April, rising 0.5% amid higher services prices, though it did come with slight downward revisions to prior month\'s data.


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