This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 September 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 10, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 September 2021

While fears of an Evergrande default in China were rattling financial markets, for those of us in Southeast Texas who have survived the typically very hot months of July, August and September, this week brought the very welcome first early fall-like temperatures.  Not quite leaf-color changing or morning frost weather yet, but pleasant temperatures and much lower humidity.  The type of weather that hints at the relief to come.  In much the same way, this week’s FOMC meeting hinted at a forthcoming taper of bond purchases, reflecting their view that the outlook for economic growth for the balance of the year remains bright.




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While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.

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This week brought glimpses of market stabilization after weeks of turmoil. Although consumers seem unfazed by the uproar, tighter credit conditions coming down the pipeline will likely weigh on growth.

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European activity is surging. Germany and Italy are leading the way, but France is close behind despite an ongoing rise in cases. The Google data are a bit outdated, but are hard to reconcile with today’s weak Eurozone services PMI figures.

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The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.

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The Texans have earned a top draft position yet again, the Cowboys are home again for the remainder of the playoffs, and inflation concerns that continue to mount, along with ongoing supply chain disruptions, are weighing on homebuilder confidence.

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The manufacturing sector is showing a great deal of resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing survey exceeding expectations, at 60.7, and factory orders remaining strong.

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The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.


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