This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 August 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Aug 24, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 August 2021

In a little bit of a twist, I’ll highlight an International element of the week’s current economic activity.  The Wells Fargo Economics team notes in the Commentary that new COVID cases in New Zealand disrupted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's plan to tighten monetary policy this week.  That raises a question about whether, going forward, rising COVID cases alter any other central banks' plans to normalize interest rates.  Also, China activity data missed expectations by a wide margin, signaling China's economy is also under pressure as a result of new restrictions.




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On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.

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Deep thought for the week, if a tree falls in the forest, or an Olympics occurs, and no one is there to hear it or see it, did it really occur?

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Total payrolls rose by 263K in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7% and average hourly earning rising by 0.6%.

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The combination of the election outcome and a workable vaccine boosted financial markets and set the background music for this week’s short list of indicators.

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The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.

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Employers added jobs at the slowest pace since 2020 in March, job openings fell and an upward trend in initial jobless claims has emerged.

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The biggest economic news was Fed Chair Powell presenting the Federal Reserve\'s semiannual Monetary Policy report to Congress this week.

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July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.

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The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.

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Economic data continue to suggest the U.S. economy is only gradually losing momentum. Consumers continue to spend, and industrial and housing activity are seeing some stabilization.


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