U.S. - The Terrible Data (and the Stimulus) Start to Arrive
- Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.
- 22 million people—or nearly 15% of the U.S. workforce—have filed for unemployment insurance in the past four weeks.
- Retail sales, industrial production and home builder confidence all posted historic declines, with the New York and Philly Fed indices pointing to even more pain in April.
- Household relief checks began to arrive, and the $349 billion of PPP loans were exhausted. We think a reload is likely.
Global - BoC Follows the Fed; Chinese Growth Nosedives
- The Bank of Canada met this week and adopted a series of market measures that mirrored the Federal Reserve’s efforts to dive into unexplored monetary policy territory to support the economy and financial markets.
- Data released last night showed real GDP in China declined 6.8% year-over-year in the first quarter, easily the biggest contraction since the country began reporting official figures in 1992.
- The Chinese data provided additional evidence that, unlike a typical recession, manufacturing is outperforming the consumer.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 January 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 12, 2021
The manufacturing sector is showing a great deal of resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing survey exceeding expectations, at 60.7, and factory orders remaining strong.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 13, 2020
The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 11.7 points to 57.1, reflecting the broadening re-opening of the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 January 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2021
Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2022
it looks like higher mortgage rates are starting to have some effect on the housing market as April...
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19August 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 23, 2022
July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection...
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 February 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 04, 2023
During January, payrolls jumped by 517K, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.5%-4.75% this week.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2021
The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone\'s throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart).
13 January 2021 Monthly Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 19, 2021
The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 March 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 03, 2024
Consumer momentum remains largely intact, inflation continues to inch back down, albeit at a slower pace, and rate-sensitive sectors stayed in a holding pattern.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19 June 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 22, 2020
Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.
