This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 April 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 11, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 April 2020

U.S - Policy Moves Are More Important than the Data

  • The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.
  • While hiccups in implementing the Payroll Protection Program have been frustrating, the plan offers significant relief to small businesses that will lessen the severity of the downturn and contribute to a speedier recovery.
  • High frequency data, such as jobless claims, consumer confidence and mortgage applications, continue to show an economy under intense pressure. Inflation data are largely old news given the sharp plunge in demand in recent weeks.

 

Global - Bad Economic News Keeps on Coming

  • 2020 is going to be a very tough year for the global economy. In our latest forecast update published earlier this week, we highlighted that every major economy we monitor will suffer a recession, and we revised our GDP forecast down further to project a 2.7% global contraction this year.
  • This week’s data gave further clarity on how bad global activity might be. Canada’s March employment fell by one million, and given a large drop in hours worked a sizable Q1 decline looks assured. The U.K. economy was slowing even before the virus hit and the U.K. should also see Q1 GDP fall, while next week’s data focus will be an expected slump in China’s Q1 GDP.



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