This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Dec 26, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

U.S. - Someday Soon We All Will Be Together, If the Fates Allow

  • Vaccines are here, but they are not yet widely available in a way that can stem the spread of a disease that grows by 200K a day.
  • A relief bill is coming, but it arrives as some of the damage it aims to prevent has already occurred: confidence is waning, personal spending fell in November for the first time since April and more than 800K people filed first-time jobless claims each week so far in December.
  • The ultimate form of social distancing is owning your own home. Fresh data on new and existing home sales this week show that, on trend, housing continues to hold up well.

 

Global - U.K. COVID Cases Rising

  • This past weekend, U.K. authorities announced a new strain of COVID was spreading across the country, particularly in London. Case numbers have spiked in the city of London over the past few weeks, forcing policymakers to implement new lockdown measures.
  • The economic outlook for the U.K. was already diminishing as confirmed cases were rising and restrictions were being implemented. With harsher restrictions now in place, it is likely the U.K. economy contracts more severely in Q4-2020, as well as on an annual basis, than we currently forecast. In addition, the early 2021 outlook is now more complicated.



This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 October 2020

Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits.

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In the biggest financial news this week not connected to college football conference realignment, July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index slipped one point to 80.

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Deep thought for the week, if a tree falls in the forest, or an Olympics occurs, and no one is there to hear it or see it, did it really occur?

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Unlike Yordan Alvarez, no one is expecting the Fed to stand back and admire their handiwork after this weeks 50 basis point increase in the Fed Discount Rate. Similar to Yordan, their effort is more of a single and not a home run.

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On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.

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The housing sector has borne the brunt of the Fed\'s efforts to slow the economy, and this week\'s data showed the industry continues to reel.

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Employers added jobs at the slowest pace since 2020 in March, job openings fell and an upward trend in initial jobless claims has emerged.

June 2020 Economy At A Glance

The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.

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Sales of existing homes fell 2.2% to a 5.38 million-unit pace in September, but sales and prices were still up enough in the quarter that they will add solidly to Q3 GDP growth.


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