This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Dec 26, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

U.S. - Someday Soon We All Will Be Together, If the Fates Allow

  • Vaccines are here, but they are not yet widely available in a way that can stem the spread of a disease that grows by 200K a day.
  • A relief bill is coming, but it arrives as some of the damage it aims to prevent has already occurred: confidence is waning, personal spending fell in November for the first time since April and more than 800K people filed first-time jobless claims each week so far in December.
  • The ultimate form of social distancing is owning your own home. Fresh data on new and existing home sales this week show that, on trend, housing continues to hold up well.

 

Global - U.K. COVID Cases Rising

  • This past weekend, U.K. authorities announced a new strain of COVID was spreading across the country, particularly in London. Case numbers have spiked in the city of London over the past few weeks, forcing policymakers to implement new lockdown measures.
  • The economic outlook for the U.K. was already diminishing as confirmed cases were rising and restrictions were being implemented. With harsher restrictions now in place, it is likely the U.K. economy contracts more severely in Q4-2020, as well as on an annual basis, than we currently forecast. In addition, the early 2021 outlook is now more complicated.



This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 November 2020

The U.S. election has come and gone, but we have not made any meaningful changes to our economic outlook, which continues to look for further expansion in the U.S. economy in coming quarters.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 December 2022

Total payrolls rose by 263K in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7% and average hourly earning rising by 0.6%.

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Nonfarm payrolls expanded 303K in March, surpassing all estimates submitted to Bloomberg. The continued strength in hiring suggests less urgency for policymakers at the Federal Reserve to lower the target range of the fed funds rate.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 May 2022

U.S. retail sales topped expectations in April, while industrial production also grew more rapidly than economists expected. Data on housing starts, home sales and homebuilder sentiment, however, showed tentative signs of cooling.

September 2020 Economy At A Glance

A March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found most exploration firms need West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI) at $49 per barrel or higher to profitably drill a well.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 April 2020

The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 September 2020

Existing home sales rose 2.4% to a 6.0-million unit annual pace. The surge in sales further depleted inventories and pushed prices sharply higher.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 October 2020

Real GDP jumped a record 33.1% during Q3, beating expectations. A 40.7% surge in consumer spending drove the gain.

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Homebuying retreated in April following a leg up in mortgage rates. Meanwhile, durable goods orders surprised to the upside, suggesting the manufacturing industry is on better footing.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 August 2022

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that nonfarm payrolls increased 528,000 for the month of July, easily topping estimates, lowering the unemployment rate to 3.5%.


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