This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Dec 26, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

U.S. - Someday Soon We All Will Be Together, If the Fates Allow

  • Vaccines are here, but they are not yet widely available in a way that can stem the spread of a disease that grows by 200K a day.
  • A relief bill is coming, but it arrives as some of the damage it aims to prevent has already occurred: confidence is waning, personal spending fell in November for the first time since April and more than 800K people filed first-time jobless claims each week so far in December.
  • The ultimate form of social distancing is owning your own home. Fresh data on new and existing home sales this week show that, on trend, housing continues to hold up well.

 

Global - U.K. COVID Cases Rising

  • This past weekend, U.K. authorities announced a new strain of COVID was spreading across the country, particularly in London. Case numbers have spiked in the city of London over the past few weeks, forcing policymakers to implement new lockdown measures.
  • The economic outlook for the U.K. was already diminishing as confirmed cases were rising and restrictions were being implemented. With harsher restrictions now in place, it is likely the U.K. economy contracts more severely in Q4-2020, as well as on an annual basis, than we currently forecast. In addition, the early 2021 outlook is now more complicated.



This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 December 2019

President Trump became the third president in U.S. history to be impeached by the House, but removal by the Senate is highly unlikely. The House also passed the USMCA, which should be signed into law in early 2020.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 November 2020

The U.S. election has come and gone, but we have not made any meaningful changes to our economic outlook, which continues to look for further expansion in the U.S. economy in coming quarters.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 January 2020

The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 October 2022

Highly anticipated Consumer Price Index report surprised to the upside. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in September, and core CPI increased 0.6%.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 July 2022

July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 May 2023

In April, employers added 253K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. During the same month, the ISM services index edged up to 51.9, while the ISM manufacturing index improved to 47.1.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 April 2021

Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 September 2022

The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time. The housing market continues to buckle under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 February 2024

Stronger-than-expected inflation, underpinned by the mildly hawkish minutes from the January FOMC meeting, drove a move higher in mortgage rates.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 June 2021

The CDC\'s relaxation of its mask mandate occurred mid-May, and as data for that month begins rolling in this week, it is evident there is no lack of demand. Supplies, on the other hand, are a worsening problem.


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