This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Dec 26, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

U.S. - Someday Soon We All Will Be Together, If the Fates Allow

  • Vaccines are here, but they are not yet widely available in a way that can stem the spread of a disease that grows by 200K a day.
  • A relief bill is coming, but it arrives as some of the damage it aims to prevent has already occurred: confidence is waning, personal spending fell in November for the first time since April and more than 800K people filed first-time jobless claims each week so far in December.
  • The ultimate form of social distancing is owning your own home. Fresh data on new and existing home sales this week show that, on trend, housing continues to hold up well.

 

Global - U.K. COVID Cases Rising

  • This past weekend, U.K. authorities announced a new strain of COVID was spreading across the country, particularly in London. Case numbers have spiked in the city of London over the past few weeks, forcing policymakers to implement new lockdown measures.
  • The economic outlook for the U.K. was already diminishing as confirmed cases were rising and restrictions were being implemented. With harsher restrictions now in place, it is likely the U.K. economy contracts more severely in Q4-2020, as well as on an annual basis, than we currently forecast. In addition, the early 2021 outlook is now more complicated.



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