U.S. - Inflation Comes Back in Focus
- Market attention was concentrated on the January consumer price data, as inflation has come back into focus. There is renewed concern among market participants that inflation is about to take off once the economy re-opens and demand accelerates. But, such concerns have not yet meaningfully presented themselves in consumer price data, with the core consumer price index unchanged for the month of January.
- While we expect inflation to firm later this year, we believe the Federal Reserve remains less concerned about inflation and more worried about labor market scarring. The labor market recovery continues to stumble, with an additional 793K workers having filed an initial claim for unemployment insurance last week.
- President Biden and Chinese President Xi had their first conversation this week since Biden was elected. Reports suggest numerous topics were discussed, but no new policy concerning tariffs was put in place.
Global - Mixed Finish to 2020, Soft Start to 2021
- The European economy showed mixed, albeit overall subdued, trends at the end of last year. United Kingdom Q4 GDP surprised to the upside with a 1.0% quarter-over-quarter gain. In contrast, national level manufacturing data for December from the Eurozone were mixed, and Eurozone-wide industrial output is expected to fall 0.5% for December. The mixed trends were not just in Europe, with Brazil reporting a large decline in December retail sales but an increase in December overall economic activity.
- While 2020 finished on a mixed note, it is likely that Europe's economy will show further weakness in early 2021. February PMI surveys are due from both the Eurozone and the U.K. next week. While the services PMI is expected to rise modestly for both economies, they are also expected to remain below the breakeven 50 level. That suggests a further (Eurozone) or renewed (U.K.) contraction in economic activity, and we forecast Q1 GDP declines for both economies.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 20, 2022
Financial markets reacted in a zig-zag pattern to this week\'s economic data ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Price pressure is still not showing the sustained slowdown the Fed needs before it takes its foot off the throttle of tighter policy.
This Week's State Of The Economy-What Is Ahead?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 03, 2019
How will Fed rates-cut and Trump 10% tariff on $300 Billion Chinese Goods countered by Chinese currency devaluation against Dollar, affect inflation and economic slowdown in US economy?
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 March 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 21, 2020
Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19August 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 23, 2022
July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection...
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 July 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 27, 2022
July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 17, 2020
The U.S. election has come and gone, but we have not made any meaningful changes to our economic outlook, which continues to look for further expansion in the U.S. economy in coming quarters.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 May 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 17, 2023
In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 17, 2021
Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 June 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 08, 2021
The CDC\'s relaxation of its mask mandate occurred mid-May, and as data for that month begins rolling in this week, it is evident there is no lack of demand. Supplies, on the other hand, are a worsening problem.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 February 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 20, 2023
Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.
