U.S. - Better Numbers
- Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month's 227,000-job drop. The annual revisions to the prior data provide a more accurate assessment of job losses during last spring's lockdown, as well as the subsequent recovery. Job losses in March and April of last year were 202,000 jobs larger and the recovery has been slightly stronger. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%.
- Manufacturing, construction and logistics continue to lead the recovery, which looks more like an old-school variety rebound. While the ISM manufacturing index declined in January, it remains relatively high at 58.7 and the ISM services survey rose to that same level. Both are consistent with strong economic growth. Severe supply-chain disruptions are bolstering both surveys. Nonfarm productivity plummeted 4.8% during the fourth quarter and unit labor cost surged 6.8%. Labor costs are likely to put pressure on operating margins this year, even though there is still considerable slack in the labor market.
Global - International Growth Outlook Still Mixed
- PMI data in China indicate renewed restrictions in small provinces outside of Beijing are having a modest impact on the Chinese economy. China's economy is still outperforming, but prolonged lockdowns could introduce risks to the economy. Eurozone growth and inflation data beat expectations to the upside; however, these data should not be interpreted as the broader European economy recovering from COVID quite yet.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting this week yielded an ultra-dovish response as the central bank opted to double the size of its asset purchase program. Prior to the meeting, we were optimistic regarding Australia's economic prospects, and with more bond buying to materialize, there are upside risks to our GDP forecasts.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 January 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 28, 2023
Real GDP expanded at a 2.9% annualized pace in Q4. While beating expectations, the underlying details were not as encouraging. Moreover, the weakening monthly indicator performances to end the year suggest the decelerating trend will continue in Q1.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 01, 2020
Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 July 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2021
Despite a few misses on the headline numbers, economic data this week highlighted a theme of demand continuing to outstrip supply and ongoing slack in the labor market.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 May 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 25, 2020
The re-opening of the country is getting underway, with all 50 states starting to roll back restrictions.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 03, 2023
U.S. Economy expands but at a weak rate. Regional bank failures cause corporate investment spreads to widen again. House Republicans pass bills that affect the debt ceiling.
June 2020 Economy At A Glance
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 18, 2020
The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.
25 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 30, 2021
In the second installment of our series on economic risks in the foreseeable future, we analyze the potential for higher inflation in coming years stemming from excess demand.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 13, 2022
The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting from its current stance. The data seems to be going in multiple directions all at once.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 December 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 15, 2022
Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 August 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 17, 2019
Markets gyrated this week as the spread between the ten- and two-year Treasury\'s turned negative for the first time since 2007. Financial markets seem to expect that the sharp slowdown in growth overseas will soon spread to the United States.
