U.S. - Better Numbers
- Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month's 227,000-job drop. The annual revisions to the prior data provide a more accurate assessment of job losses during last spring's lockdown, as well as the subsequent recovery. Job losses in March and April of last year were 202,000 jobs larger and the recovery has been slightly stronger. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%.
- Manufacturing, construction and logistics continue to lead the recovery, which looks more like an old-school variety rebound. While the ISM manufacturing index declined in January, it remains relatively high at 58.7 and the ISM services survey rose to that same level. Both are consistent with strong economic growth. Severe supply-chain disruptions are bolstering both surveys. Nonfarm productivity plummeted 4.8% during the fourth quarter and unit labor cost surged 6.8%. Labor costs are likely to put pressure on operating margins this year, even though there is still considerable slack in the labor market.
Global - International Growth Outlook Still Mixed
- PMI data in China indicate renewed restrictions in small provinces outside of Beijing are having a modest impact on the Chinese economy. China's economy is still outperforming, but prolonged lockdowns could introduce risks to the economy. Eurozone growth and inflation data beat expectations to the upside; however, these data should not be interpreted as the broader European economy recovering from COVID quite yet.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting this week yielded an ultra-dovish response as the central bank opted to double the size of its asset purchase program. Prior to the meeting, we were optimistic regarding Australia's economic prospects, and with more bond buying to materialize, there are upside risks to our GDP forecasts.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 February 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 27, 2022
What a crazy week. It’s hard to worry about something as relatively unimportant as economic trends when one thinks about what folks in Ukraine are enduring, but economies are nonetheless impacted.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 October 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2021
Economic data this week indicated that the ongoing expansion still has some momentum despite some familiar headwinds, though this week\'s releases were largely overshadowed by a busy week on Capitol Hill.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2022
U.S. retail sales topped expectations in April, while industrial production also grew more rapidly than economists expected. Data on housing starts, home sales and homebuilder sentiment, however, showed tentative signs of cooling.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 04, 2020
Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 March 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 28, 2020
The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2020
U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 28, 2019
A series of U.K. general election polls released this week continue to show Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party with a significant lead over the opposition Labor Party.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2022
it looks like higher mortgage rates are starting to have some effect on the housing market as April...
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 February 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 20, 2024
The out-of-consensus start to the year for economic data continued with a slip in retail sales and industrial production followed by a startling 14.8% drop in housing starts during January.
How Long Can US Businesses Remain Shut Down?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 29, 2020
The sudden stop in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic means that many businesses will need to rely on their cash reserves to survive the next few months.
