U.S. - Better Numbers
- Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month's 227,000-job drop. The annual revisions to the prior data provide a more accurate assessment of job losses during last spring's lockdown, as well as the subsequent recovery. Job losses in March and April of last year were 202,000 jobs larger and the recovery has been slightly stronger. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%.
- Manufacturing, construction and logistics continue to lead the recovery, which looks more like an old-school variety rebound. While the ISM manufacturing index declined in January, it remains relatively high at 58.7 and the ISM services survey rose to that same level. Both are consistent with strong economic growth. Severe supply-chain disruptions are bolstering both surveys. Nonfarm productivity plummeted 4.8% during the fourth quarter and unit labor cost surged 6.8%. Labor costs are likely to put pressure on operating margins this year, even though there is still considerable slack in the labor market.
Global - International Growth Outlook Still Mixed
- PMI data in China indicate renewed restrictions in small provinces outside of Beijing are having a modest impact on the Chinese economy. China's economy is still outperforming, but prolonged lockdowns could introduce risks to the economy. Eurozone growth and inflation data beat expectations to the upside; however, these data should not be interpreted as the broader European economy recovering from COVID quite yet.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting this week yielded an ultra-dovish response as the central bank opted to double the size of its asset purchase program. Prior to the meeting, we were optimistic regarding Australia's economic prospects, and with more bond buying to materialize, there are upside risks to our GDP forecasts.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2022
U.S. retail sales topped expectations in April, while industrial production also grew more rapidly than economists expected. Data on housing starts, home sales and homebuilder sentiment, however, showed tentative signs of cooling.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 15, 2021
September\'s disappointing employment report clearly takes center stage over this week\'s other economic reports. Nonfarm employment rose by just 194,000 jobs, as employers continue to have trouble finding the workers they need.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 26, 2021
Okay, so I’ve gotten about half a dozen calls since Wednesday asking if I saw the May CPI numbers that came out this week.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 14, 2020
Financial conditions tightened sharply this week as concerns over the coronavirus and the economic fallout of containment efforts mounted.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 23, 2021
Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 16, 2023
Sometimes, the impact of higher rates is quite obvious, such as the series of bank failures that occurred earlier this year.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 27, 2022
July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2020
U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 14, 2022
Deep thought for the week, if a tree falls in the forest, or an Olympics occurs, and no one is there to hear it or see it, did it really occur?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 13, 2022
CPI increases continue to sizzle like this weekend’s temperature, putting consumers in a worse mood than Texas Rangers fans (with their 9.5 games back $500 million middle infield).