This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 February 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Feb 10, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 February 2021

U.S. - Better Numbers

  • Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month's 227,000-job drop. The annual revisions to the prior data provide a more accurate assessment of job losses during last spring's lockdown, as well as the subsequent recovery. Job losses in March and April of last year were 202,000 jobs larger and the recovery has been slightly stronger. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%.
  • Manufacturing, construction and logistics continue to lead the recovery, which looks more like an old-school variety rebound. While the ISM manufacturing index declined in January, it remains relatively high at 58.7 and the ISM services survey rose to that same level. Both are consistent with strong economic growth. Severe supply-chain disruptions are bolstering both surveys. Nonfarm productivity plummeted 4.8% during the fourth quarter and unit labor cost surged 6.8%. Labor costs are likely to put pressure on operating margins this year, even though there is still considerable slack in the labor market.

 

Global - International Growth Outlook Still Mixed

  • PMI data in China indicate renewed restrictions in small provinces outside of Beijing are having a modest impact on the Chinese economy. China's economy is still outperforming, but prolonged lockdowns could introduce risks to the economy. Eurozone growth and inflation data beat expectations to the upside; however, these data should not be interpreted as the broader European economy recovering from COVID quite yet.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting this week yielded an ultra-dovish response as the central bank opted to double the size of its asset purchase program. Prior to the meeting, we were optimistic regarding Australia's economic prospects, and with more bond buying to materialize, there are upside risks to our GDP forecasts.



This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 October 2022

The real estate sector has been significantly affected by rising interest rates, with total housing starts falling 8.1% in September. Peering ahead, the forward-looking Leading Economic Index points to a recession in the coming year.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 September 2020

In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 December 2020

Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 April 2024

The March consumer price data dominated the economic discussion this week and are the latest to support that the timing and degree of Fed easing will be later and smaller than many of us previously expected.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 April 2023

The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 March 2020

Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 October 2021

Economic data this week indicated that the ongoing expansion still has some momentum despite some familiar headwinds, though this week\'s releases were largely overshadowed by a busy week on Capitol Hill.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 September 2021

While we were picking up tree limbs from the yard, data released this week generally showed a stronger economy in August than many expected in the wake of surging COVID cases.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 January 2020

Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 October 2023

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.


Instagram

@ tcgcrealestate

Subscribe Now! IT's Free

Stay up to date with all news coming straight in your mailbox.

Copyright © 2024 TC Global Commercial. All rights reserved.