This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 July 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Aug 11, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 July 2021

The big news for the day is the opening of the very first Louis Vuitton men’s store in Texas in the Houston Galleria.  Really, that seems like much more of a Dallas thing to me.

 

In other news, although the headline rate of Q2 GDP came in softer than expectations, part of that was due to supply chain problems as businesses had to draw down inventories to meet demand, resulting in a drag on growth and, I might add, also continuing to drag down bank working capital line borrowings.




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Looking at Q4 GDP, Australia\'s economy grew by less than expected, GDP was flat for the quarter in both Canada and Switzerland, and Sweden\'s economy contracted in the final quarter of last year.

Rising COVID-19 Cases Put A Damper On Re-openings

The rising number of COVID-19 infections gained momentum this week, with most of the rise occurring in the South and West. The rise in infections is larger than can be explained by increased testing alone and is slowing re-openings.

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Employment growth was broad-based, though reliant on a 87K gain in health care & social assistance. Modest gains from construction, financial activities and hospitality also contributed to private sector job growth.

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The latest hiring data are an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is withstanding the global slowdown and continued trade-related uncertainty.

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Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.

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Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery.

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Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.

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Employers continued to add jobs at a steady clip in October, demonstrating the labor market remains tight and the FOMC will continue to tighten policy.

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The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.

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U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.


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