This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 July 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Aug 11, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 July 2021

The big news for the day is the opening of the very first Louis Vuitton men’s store in Texas in the Houston Galleria.  Really, that seems like much more of a Dallas thing to me.

 

In other news, although the headline rate of Q2 GDP came in softer than expectations, part of that was due to supply chain problems as businesses had to draw down inventories to meet demand, resulting in a drag on growth and, I might add, also continuing to drag down bank working capital line borrowings.




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The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.

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Lock downs began to be lifted across most of the country by the end of May and the total amount of daily new coronavirus cases has been trending lower. But the flattening case count has not been consistent across the country.

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During February, existing home sales and housing starts both topped expectations and rose at robust rates. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have remained subdued so far in March.

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e move into the Labor Day weekend celebrating the 235K jobs added in August, while simultaneously lamenting that it was about half a million jobs short of expectations.

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The housing sector was in focus this week. During September, existing homes sales remained in a slump and declined to a fresh cycle low, while new home sales bucked the trend and rose solidly.

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Personal consumption is still on track for a solid Q3, but retail sales declined in September for the first time in seven months.

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Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.

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Restrictions from a renewed COVID outbreak in China, regulatory changes weighing on local financial markets and a potential collapse of Evergrande have all contributed to a slowdown in Chinese economic activity.

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A recent strong report from the National Association of Homebuilders set the tone for another round of strong housing data. The NAHB index rose two points to a record high 85.

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