This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 November 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Nov 28, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 November 2020

U.S. - One Can of Condensed Soup

  • It may be a holiday-shortened week, but there have been as many developments and economic indicators packed into three days as we can recall seeing in any other week this year.
  • We might have a third vaccine, but amid record case counts and double-digit positivity rates in many places, jobless claims posted the first back-to-back weekly increases since July.
  • But, there is hope. The manufacturing rebound continued with another solid increase in durable goods orders and corporate profits crested above its pre-pandemic peak for the first time.
  • Consumers, undaunted, increased spending 0.5% in October.

 

Global - Data Pointing to Softer Activity in Some Countries

  • In the Eurozone, November survey data continued to soften, with the manufacturing PMI edging lower to 53.6, while the services PMI fell further into contraction territory at 41.3. As COVID cases across Europe have increased, and lockdown measures have been re-imposed, the risk of an economic stumble has increased. Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, survey data also pointed to softer activity as the November services PMI fell to 45.8.
  • In contrast to the subdued data in parts of the Northern hemisphere, New Zealand’s Q3 retail sales surged 28.0% quarter-over-quarter, the largest increase on record.



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In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.

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The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.

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The global mobility playing field is equalizing. Major European countries such as Germany and France have seen a slowdown in recent weeks, leaving them right in line with the United States relative to the January baseline.

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It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.


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