This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 April 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 04, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 April 2020

U.S - An Unprecedented Time

  • Data this week began to show just how large the coronavirus-related impact on the economy will be. Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.
  • Employers reported payrolls declined by 701 K workers in March. This decline comes before the worst of the coronavirus-related impacts on the once-strong labor market and only hints at what’s in store. Job losses will be in the millions in April.
  • President Trump tweeted favorable comments of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s relationship, but it’s unclear if coordinated production cuts will occur. Oil prices remain exceptionally low.

 

Global - Sentiment Indicators Still Point Down in Many Countries

  • This week, we received a bit more detail on the economic impact many international economies face following the outbreak of the coronavirus. Initial market sentiment indicators still pointed down in most countries with the Market manufacturing and services PMIs revised lower in the Euro zone and United Kingdom.
  • China’s PMIs returned to expansion in March, with the manufacturing PMI climbing 16.3 points. Meanwhile the non-manufacturing index also rose, and the index for small firms surged the most since 2017.



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Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month\'s 227,000-job drop.

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In the biggest financial news this week not connected to college football conference realignment, July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index slipped one point to 80.

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The resiliency of the U.S. consumer was also on display, as total retail sales increased a stronger-than-expected 1.3% in October, boosted, in part, by a 1.3% jump in motor vehicles & parts and a 4.1% rise at gasoline stations.

November 2020 Economy At A Glance

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent, or $1.3 trillion in Q3, adjusted for inflation.

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Unlike the local temperatures, data released this week showed U.S. economic growth modestly declined in Q2.

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Initial jobless claims rose to just over 1.4 million for the week ending July 18. Continuing claims fell to about 16.2 million. Initial claims edging higher suggests that the resurgence of COVID-19 may be taking a toll on the labor market recovery.

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During February, existing home sales and housing starts both topped expectations and rose at robust rates. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have remained subdued so far in March.

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April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.


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