This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 July 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jul 31, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 July 2022

Now we head into the hottest part of the summer…August.  Is that frightening or what?  Unlike the local temperatures, data released this week showed U.S. economic growth modestly declined in Q2. New home sales were yet another data release that pointed toward a cooling housing market.  In case you’ve been under a rock, the FOMC continued its fight against elevated inflation with its second consecutive 75 bps increase in the federal funds rate this week.




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April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.

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Unlike Yordan Alvarez, no one is expecting the Fed to stand back and admire their handiwork after this weeks 50 basis point increase in the Fed Discount Rate. Similar to Yordan, their effort is more of a single and not a home run.

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Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%.

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The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time. The housing market continues to buckle under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.

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Employers added jobs for the fourth consecutive month in August, bringing the total number of jobs recovered from the virus-related low to 10.5 million.

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Sales of existing homes fell 2.2% to a 5.38 million-unit pace in September, but sales and prices were still up enough in the quarter that they will add solidly to Q3 GDP growth.

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This week, Congress and the president prevented what would have been the first default in U.S. history by agreeing to suspend the debt ceiling through the end of 2024.

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It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.

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Restrictions from a renewed COVID outbreak in China, regulatory changes weighing on local financial markets and a potential collapse of Evergrande have all contributed to a slowdown in Chinese economic activity.

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While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.


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