This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 July 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jul 31, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 July 2022

Now we head into the hottest part of the summer…August.  Is that frightening or what?  Unlike the local temperatures, data released this week showed U.S. economic growth modestly declined in Q2. New home sales were yet another data release that pointed toward a cooling housing market.  In case you’ve been under a rock, the FOMC continued its fight against elevated inflation with its second consecutive 75 bps increase in the federal funds rate this week.




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The Federal Reserve reduced the fed funds rate 25 bps this week, continuing to cite economic weakness overseas and muted inflation pressures.

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The beginning of this week saw some optimism that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived, but data through the rest of the week provided grim reminder of the economic damage from COVID-19.

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Existing home sales rose 2.4% to a 6.0-million unit annual pace. The surge in sales further depleted inventories and pushed prices sharply higher.

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An unexpected spike in jobless claims is a sign that cracks are forming in the labor market. Higher mortgage rates look to be hindering a housing market rebound.

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Homebuying retreated in April following a leg up in mortgage rates. Meanwhile, durable goods orders surprised to the upside, suggesting the manufacturing industry is on better footing.

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Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.

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Economic data were downbeat this week, as downward revisions took some of the shine out of the marquee headline numbers. Despite the somewhat weak start to Q1, economic growth continues to trek along.

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During January, payrolls jumped by 517K, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.5%-4.75% this week.

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The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.


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