U.S. - The U.S. Economy Appears to Have Bottomed in April
- The beginning of this week saw some optimism that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived, but data through the rest of the week provided grim reminder of the economic damage from COVID-19.
- Jobless claims declined for the eighth straight week, but continuing claims posted their first decline during the pandemic period, a positive signal for the labor market.
- The second estimate of Q1 U.S. output revealed a slightly worse decline in real GDP. Q2 will be much worse.
Global - Keep Looking Forward, Don’t Look Back
- Q1 GDP for the OECD economies, which includes most developed economies, fell 1.8% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year. Considering the slowdown seen in emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil, we expect the decline in Q2 GDP for the G20 economies to be even larger.
- Some modestly encouraging signs are starting to emerge. PMI surveys across many countries improved in May, as did German IFO business confidence and Eurozone economic confidence.
- That said, with the outlook still somewhat uncertain, we expect the ECB to ease monetary policy further next week.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 24, 2021
The Wells Fargo Economics team notes in the Commentary that new COVID cases in New Zealand disrupted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand\'s plan to tighten monetary policy this week.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 25, 2022
The biggest economic news was Fed Chair Powell presenting the Federal Reserve\'s semiannual Monetary Policy report to Congress this week.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 23, 2023
Retail and Industrial activity were stronger than the headline data suggest, there are also some signs of weakening.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2022
As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 12, 2021
The manufacturing sector is showing a great deal of resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing survey exceeding expectations, at 60.7, and factory orders remaining strong.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 28, 2019
A series of U.K. general election polls released this week continue to show Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party with a significant lead over the opposition Labor Party.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2020
Mild weather helped housing starts surge 16.9% in December to a 1.61 million-unit pace, the highest in 13 years. Manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed both rose more than expected in December.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 14, 2020
The combination of the election outcome and a workable vaccine boosted financial markets and set the background music for this week’s short list of indicators.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 07, 2020
An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 28, 2019
The release of the transcript of President Trump\'s phone conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the whistle blower complaint overshadowed most of this week\'s economic reports and took bond yields modestly lower.