The first economic data released this week in the United States reinforced the theme that labor supply and demand are struggling to come into balance. Total job openings declined modestly in August, but at 10.4 million, they remain roughly 50% above their pre-COVID levels. Despite the decline, a few sectors saw job openings increase, such as transportation, warehousing and utilities. Perhaps more interesting, the quit rate jumped 0.2 percentage points in August and hit the highest level on record (see chart). Quits increased the most in accommodation & food services, which makes sense given that significant upward pressure on wages in that industry is likely keeping competition for workers intense. A high quit rate is typically a sign that workers are confident they can voluntarily leave their current job and find gainful employment elsewhere. Based off of the weak labor supply numbers in last week's September employment report, we doubt the September job openings and labor turnover data to be released next month will show supply and demand reaching any kind of balance. As we have written before, we expect the labor supply picture to resolve slowly over time rather than all at once
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 May 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 10, 2024
The Federal Reserve can afford patience thanks to a resilient labor market. During April, total nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000 net jobs, continuing a string of solid monthly payroll additions.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 23, 2021
While we were picking up tree limbs from the yard, data released this week generally showed a stronger economy in August than many expected in the wake of surging COVID cases.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 March 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 16, 2022
Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine continues to consume nearly all media attention and has created a level of volatility that is not yet reflected in the data released this week.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 August 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 15, 2023
During July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up 4.7% in July. Recent signs have been more encouraging, with core CPI running at a 3.1% three-month annualized pace.
25 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 30, 2021
In the second installment of our series on economic risks in the foreseeable future, we analyze the potential for higher inflation in coming years stemming from excess demand.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2020
The resurgence in COVID-19 in much of the Sun Belt appears to have topped out, although cases are rising faster in some smaller mid-Atlantic states and in parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 August 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 18, 2020
Despite indications of lost momentum elsewhere, residential construction activity is picking up steam.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 January 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 20, 2023
The housing sector has borne the brunt of the Fed\'s efforts to slow the economy, and this week\'s data showed the industry continues to reel.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 24, 2020
The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 July 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 27, 2022
July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.
