This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 October 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 15, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 October 2021

September's disappointing employment report clearly takes center stage over this week's other economic reports. Nonfarm employment rose by just 194,000 jobs, as employers continue to have trouble finding the workers they need. While the equity markets sold off and bonds initially rallied on the news, the report was not quite as weak as it first appeared. Data for the prior two months were revised higher by a combined 169,000 jobs.

The household employment data do not show anywhere near the deceleration that the establishment survey does. The household survey showed civilian employment rising by 526,000 in September, following a 509,000 increase the prior month.




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This week, Congress and the president prevented what would have been the first default in U.S. history by agreeing to suspend the debt ceiling through the end of 2024.

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The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.

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The Federal Reserve can afford patience thanks to a resilient labor market. During April, total nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000 net jobs, continuing a string of solid monthly payroll additions.

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U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent, or $1.3 trillion in Q3, adjusted for inflation.

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In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.

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Retail sales declined 0.4% during February, while industrial production was flat (0.0%). Housing starts and permits jumped 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively.

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Deep thought for the week, if a tree falls in the forest, or an Olympics occurs, and no one is there to hear it or see it, did it really occur?

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