This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 October 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 15, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 October 2021

September's disappointing employment report clearly takes center stage over this week's other economic reports. Nonfarm employment rose by just 194,000 jobs, as employers continue to have trouble finding the workers they need. While the equity markets sold off and bonds initially rallied on the news, the report was not quite as weak as it first appeared. Data for the prior two months were revised higher by a combined 169,000 jobs.

The household employment data do not show anywhere near the deceleration that the establishment survey does. The household survey showed civilian employment rising by 526,000 in September, following a 509,000 increase the prior month.




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European activity is surging. Germany and Italy are leading the way, but France is close behind despite an ongoing rise in cases. The Google data are a bit outdated, but are hard to reconcile with today’s weak Eurozone services PMI figures.

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The resiliency of the U.S. consumer was also on display, as total retail sales increased a stronger-than-expected 1.3% in October, boosted, in part, by a 1.3% jump in motor vehicles & parts and a 4.1% rise at gasoline stations.

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The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.

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In the immediate fallout after the lockdowns in the early stages of this pandemic, there was a lot of discussion about the shape of the recovery.

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Deep thought for the week, if a tree falls in the forest, or an Olympics occurs, and no one is there to hear it or see it, did it really occur?

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The U.S. economy continues to expand, albeit at a moderate pace. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in Q3/19.

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Employment growth was broad-based, though reliant on a 87K gain in health care & social assistance. Modest gains from construction, financial activities and hospitality also contributed to private sector job growth.

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The out-of-consensus start to the year for economic data continued with a slip in retail sales and industrial production followed by a startling 14.8% drop in housing starts during January.

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Restrictions from a renewed COVID outbreak in China, regulatory changes weighing on local financial markets and a potential collapse of Evergrande have all contributed to a slowdown in Chinese economic activity.


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