This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 October 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 15, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 October 2021

September's disappointing employment report clearly takes center stage over this week's other economic reports. Nonfarm employment rose by just 194,000 jobs, as employers continue to have trouble finding the workers they need. While the equity markets sold off and bonds initially rallied on the news, the report was not quite as weak as it first appeared. Data for the prior two months were revised higher by a combined 169,000 jobs.

The household employment data do not show anywhere near the deceleration that the establishment survey does. The household survey showed civilian employment rising by 526,000 in September, following a 509,000 increase the prior month.




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As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.

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The latest hiring data are an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is withstanding the global slowdown and continued trade-related uncertainty.

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Initial jobless claims rose to just over 1.4 million for the week ending July 18. Continuing claims fell to about 16.2 million. Initial claims edging higher suggests that the resurgence of COVID-19 may be taking a toll on the labor market recovery.

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The Federal Reserve reduced the fed funds rate 25 bps this week, continuing to cite economic weakness overseas and muted inflation pressures.

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Market attention was concentrated on the January consumer price data, as inflation has come back into focus.

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U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.

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President Trump became the third president in U.S. history to be impeached by the House, but removal by the Senate is highly unlikely. The House also passed the USMCA, which should be signed into law in early 2020.

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The U.S. is in a severe recession caused by the sudden shutdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the lock down began, the nation has lost 21.4 million jobs.

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The recent surge in COVID-19 cases indicates that elected officials re-opened the economy too soon, that too many Americans are flaunting social distancing guidelines, and that the virus is likely to be around longer than we’d hoped.

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Weekly first time unemployment claims highlighted an extraordinarily slow week for economic news. Jobless claims fell slightly but continuing claims fell by one million.


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