This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 October 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 15, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 October 2021

September's disappointing employment report clearly takes center stage over this week's other economic reports. Nonfarm employment rose by just 194,000 jobs, as employers continue to have trouble finding the workers they need. While the equity markets sold off and bonds initially rallied on the news, the report was not quite as weak as it first appeared. Data for the prior two months were revised higher by a combined 169,000 jobs.

The household employment data do not show anywhere near the deceleration that the establishment survey does. The household survey showed civilian employment rising by 526,000 in September, following a 509,000 increase the prior month.




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Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.

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The U.S. is in a severe recession caused by the sudden shutdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the lock down began, the nation has lost 21.4 million jobs.

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Retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.3% in October, reflecting the ongoing strength of the consumer. Control group sales, a major input to GDP, also increased 0.3%.

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During February, existing home sales and housing starts both topped expectations and rose at robust rates. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have remained subdued so far in March.

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Employment growth was broad-based, though reliant on a 87K gain in health care & social assistance. Modest gains from construction, financial activities and hospitality also contributed to private sector job growth.

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Employers continued to add jobs at a steady clip in October, demonstrating the labor market remains tight and the FOMC will continue to tighten policy.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.

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As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.

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U.S. retail sales topped expectations in April, while industrial production also grew more rapidly than economists expected. Data on housing starts, home sales and homebuilder sentiment, however, showed tentative signs of cooling.


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