U.S - Survey Says
- Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.
- While hiring is likely to continue to slow, there is evidence the labor market remains right. Squaring the September hiring data with the weak survey evidence, the Fed looks set to cut rates another 25 bps, as early as October.
- The GM worker strike didn't impact the September jobs report, but for our take on how it may impact economic data, please see Topic of the Week on Page 9.
Global - Disappointing Data and More Central Bank Cuts
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced its Cash Rate another 25 bps to 0.75%, marking the third interest rate cut from the Australian central bank this year and bringing the policy rate to its lowest point on record.
- The latest data from the Eurozone has been concerning, and while we do not think a full-scale recession is imminent, we acknowledge that the risks of a recession are growing.
- The Reserve Bank of India cut its repurchase rate 25 bps to 5.15%, after already reducing its main policy rate nearly 100 bps this year to give the economy a boost.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 12, 2020
Weekly first time unemployment claims highlighted an extraordinarily slow week for economic news. Jobless claims fell slightly but continuing claims fell by one million.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 11, 2020
The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 December 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 14, 2020
Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 October 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 27, 2023
Treasury yields surged this week due to strong economic activity, impacting expectations for longer-term rates. New home sales led to a rise in single-family permits, but spiking mortgage rates are testing builder affordability strategies.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 January 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 24, 2022
The Texans have earned a top draft position yet again, the Cowboys are home again for the remainder of the playoffs, and inflation concerns that continue to mount, along with ongoing supply chain disruptions, are weighing on homebuilder confidence.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 November 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 08, 2023
Although payroll growth is easing, the labor market remains relatively tight. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9% in October, slightly higher than the cycle low of 3.4% first hit in January 2023, but still low compared to historical averages.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 March 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 21, 2023
Retail sales declined 0.4% during February, while industrial production was flat (0.0%). Housing starts and permits jumped 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 01, 2020
Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 November 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 06, 2024
The unemployment rate, which is derived from the household survey and counts those not working due to a strike or severe weather as employed, held steady at 4.1%. A 25 bps rate cut at next week\'s FOMC meeting remains highly likely.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 10, 2022
The ISM services index came in stronger than expected, and the underlying details pointed to service sector resilience with business activity and new orders notching their highest reading this year.
