2021 Annual Economic Outlook

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Dec 16, 2020

2021 Annual Economic Outlook

Aftershocks and divergence in the post-pandemic economy 

The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy. Following an unprecedented plunge in Q2-2020—real GDP nosedived at an annualized rate of 31.4%—economic activity rebounded sharply in the third quarter. But the shocks of the pandemic continue to reverberate throughout the economy as renewed surges in COVID case counts have led some local officials to reimpose some restrictions. Furthermore, voluntary decisions by individuals and businesses to follow guidelines regarding socially-distanced behavior have led to weakness in some sectors of the economy. Most foreign economies, which have experienced their own outbreaks of COVID cases, have also been rocked by the pandemic.




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Homebuying retreated in April following a leg up in mortgage rates. Meanwhile, durable goods orders surprised to the upside, suggesting the manufacturing industry is on better footing.

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Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.

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The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.

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It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.

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U.S. Economy expands but at a weak rate. Regional bank failures cause corporate investment spreads to widen again. House Republicans pass bills that affect the debt ceiling.

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After a revised look at GDP this week suggested the second quarter may not have been quite as bad as first estimated, attention shifts to the current quarter.

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The biggest economic news was Fed Chair Powell presenting the Federal Reserve\'s semiannual Monetary Policy report to Congress this week.

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In March retail sales fell 1.0%, manufacturing production slipped 0.5% and the consumer price index rose a modest 0.1%.

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Employers added jobs for the fourth consecutive month in August, bringing the total number of jobs recovered from the virus-related low to 10.5 million.

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The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time. The housing market continues to buckle under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.


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