2021 Annual Economic Outlook

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Dec 16, 2020

2021 Annual Economic Outlook

Aftershocks and divergence in the post-pandemic economy 

The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy. Following an unprecedented plunge in Q2-2020—real GDP nosedived at an annualized rate of 31.4%—economic activity rebounded sharply in the third quarter. But the shocks of the pandemic continue to reverberate throughout the economy as renewed surges in COVID case counts have led some local officials to reimpose some restrictions. Furthermore, voluntary decisions by individuals and businesses to follow guidelines regarding socially-distanced behavior have led to weakness in some sectors of the economy. Most foreign economies, which have experienced their own outbreaks of COVID cases, have also been rocked by the pandemic.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 October 2019

Sales of existing homes fell 2.2% to a 5.38 million-unit pace in September, but sales and prices were still up enough in the quarter that they will add solidly to Q3 GDP growth.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022

February\'s employment data showed the economy had strong momentum, but that seems pretty dated now with Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed\'s shift to a more hawkish tone on monetary policy.

28 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report

In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years.

Rising COVID-19 Cases Put A Damper On Re-openings

The rising number of COVID-19 infections gained momentum this week, with most of the rise occurring in the South and West. The rise in infections is larger than can be explained by increased testing alone and is slowing re-openings.

The Regional Breakdown Of A Labor Market In Meltdown

Employment fell in all 50 states and 43 states saw their unemployment rate rise to a record in April. The damage is already hard to fathom-a 28% unemployment rate in Nevada and still another month of job losses ahead.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

Vaccines are here, but they are not yet widely available in a way that can stem the spread of a disease that grows by 200K a day.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 January 2020

The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 March 2020

An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 May 2023

In April, employers added 253K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. During the same month, the ISM services index edged up to 51.9, while the ISM manufacturing index improved to 47.1.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 September 2020

Existing home sales rose 2.4% to a 6.0-million unit annual pace. The surge in sales further depleted inventories and pushed prices sharply higher.


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