2021 Annual Economic Outlook

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Dec 16, 2020

2021 Annual Economic Outlook

Aftershocks and divergence in the post-pandemic economy 

The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy. Following an unprecedented plunge in Q2-2020—real GDP nosedived at an annualized rate of 31.4%—economic activity rebounded sharply in the third quarter. But the shocks of the pandemic continue to reverberate throughout the economy as renewed surges in COVID case counts have led some local officials to reimpose some restrictions. Furthermore, voluntary decisions by individuals and businesses to follow guidelines regarding socially-distanced behavior have led to weakness in some sectors of the economy. Most foreign economies, which have experienced their own outbreaks of COVID cases, have also been rocked by the pandemic.




This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 March 2023

Retail sales declined 0.4% during February, while industrial production was flat (0.0%). Housing starts and permits jumped 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 December 2019

The latest hiring data are an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is withstanding the global slowdown and continued trade-related uncertainty.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 September 2019

The Federal Reserve reduced the fed funds rate 25 bps this week, continuing to cite economic weakness overseas and muted inflation pressures.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 December 2020

Manufacturing held up relatively well in November, despite a larger-than-expected dip in the ISM manufacturing survey. The nonfarm manufacturing survey rose slightly.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 September 2020

Existing home sales rose 2.4% to a 6.0-million unit annual pace. The surge in sales further depleted inventories and pushed prices sharply higher.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 October 2023

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 March 2020

The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 November 2020

The U.S. election has come and gone, but we have not made any meaningful changes to our economic outlook, which continues to look for further expansion in the U.S. economy in coming quarters.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 October 2020

Data continue to reflect an economy digging itself out of the lockdown-induced slump.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 December 2022

Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.


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