U.S - A Tough Week
- The COVID-19 coronavirus hammered financial markets this week and rapidly raised the perceived likelihood and magnitude of additional Fed accommodation.
- The bond market now expects almost four Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, but one might rightly wonder how lower short-term rates would alleviate supply chain disruptions.
- We believe the Fed will try to remain patient, and look for a “material” change in the outlook, but if and when the committee decides it needs to ease again, it most likely won’t be just once.
Global - Virus Spreads to Broader Global Economy
- A surge in new cases of coronavirus in Italy and Korea led to further concerns over the impact of the outbreak on global growth, while seemingly ongoing disruptions to Chinese economic activity suggest even further downside to our current forecast for Q1 Chinese GDP growth of 5.1% year-over-year.
- Elsewhere, Canada’s Q4 growth figures were soft as GDP barely grew during the quarter, although the details were more mixed. Perhaps the most important global economic data point of the week is still to come, with China’s official PMIs for February due later today, the first significant release from China that should capture the virus’ economic impact.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 October 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 25, 2022
The real estate sector has been significantly affected by rising interest rates, with total housing starts falling 8.1% in September. Peering ahead, the forward-looking Leading Economic Index points to a recession in the coming year.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 13, 2021
Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.
How Long Can US Businesses Remain Shut Down?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 29, 2020
The sudden stop in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic means that many businesses will need to rely on their cash reserves to survive the next few months.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 August 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 09, 2023
Employment growth was broad-based, though reliant on a 87K gain in health care & social assistance. Modest gains from construction, financial activities and hospitality also contributed to private sector job growth.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 March 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 27, 2022
The fact that capital goods shipments surprised on the upside was one of the few things that went right in this week\'s durable goods report.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 March 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 21, 2023
Retail sales declined 0.4% during February, while industrial production was flat (0.0%). Housing starts and permits jumped 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 17, 2021
Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 August 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 15, 2023
During July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up 4.7% in July. Recent signs have been more encouraging, with core CPI running at a 3.1% three-month annualized pace.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 28, 2020
Existing home sales rose 2.4% to a 6.0-million unit annual pace. The surge in sales further depleted inventories and pushed prices sharply higher.
September 2020 Economy At A Glance
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 19, 2020
A March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found most exploration firms need West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI) at $49 per barrel or higher to profitably drill a well.
