This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 May 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/May 04, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 May 2020

U.S. - A Tough Week for the U.S. Economy

  • U.S. GDP declined at an annualized rate of 4.8% in the first quarter, only a hint of what is to come in the second quarter.
  • Consumer spending has dried up as people have been confined to their homes—most evident in the record plunge in services consumption in March. April will be even worse.
  • More American jobs were lost last week, bringing total initial jobless claims to roughly 30 million.
  • The U.S. experienced significant declines in activity in March and April, but with many states set to at least partially re-open today, could the U.S. economy be on the road to recovery?

 

Global - Busy Week for Global Central Banks

  • It was a busy week for international data and events, which provided us with some additional detail on the economic effect from the corona virus outbreak.
  • Outside of the Federal Reserve, several major central banks took action this week, including the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Riks bank. The BoJ pledged to purchase as many government bonds as needed to stimulate its economy, while the Riks bank hinted that further balance sheet measures would be the preferred method of providing additional monetary policy support.


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Initial jobless claims rose to just over 1.4 million for the week ending July 18. Continuing claims fell to about 16.2 million. Initial claims edging higher suggests that the resurgence of COVID-19 may be taking a toll on the labor market recovery.

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Just as I know the folks in Florida are resilient and will recover in time, incoming data indicate a slowing yet resilient economy.

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During February, existing home sales and housing starts both topped expectations and rose at robust rates. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have remained subdued so far in March.

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An unexpected spike in jobless claims is a sign that cracks are forming in the labor market. Higher mortgage rates look to be hindering a housing market rebound.

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Employers added jobs at the slowest pace since 2020 in March, job openings fell and an upward trend in initial jobless claims has emerged.

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The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.

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While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.

November 2020 Economy At A Glance

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent, or $1.3 trillion in Q3, adjusted for inflation.

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Increased vaccinations and an improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March.


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