This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 26August 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Aug 29, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 26August 2022

I can understand how the opportunity to participate in lots of scintillating economic policy discussions could make fishing look exciting in comparison.  Speaking of the economy, a second guesstimate at Q2 GDP is that it posted a 0.6% quarterly decline, slightly better than the first-reported 0.7% drop. New home sales fell 12.6% in July, reflecting the ongoing downshift in housing activity. Durable goods orders were essentially flat in July, while personal income and spending rose 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 58.2 in August.  Glad to hear we’re all feeling a bit better.




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The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) printed at 0.3% month-over-month in August. This was slightly higher than consensus forecasts and marked the fastest price increase in four months.

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The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.24% in October, the largest unrounded monthly uptick since April. This bump brought the 12-month rate to 2.6%, the first annual acceleration since inflation’s hot streak in Q1.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.

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Nonfarm payrolls expanded 303K in March, surpassing all estimates submitted to Bloomberg. The continued strength in hiring suggests less urgency for policymakers at the Federal Reserve to lower the target range of the fed funds rate.

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A recent strong report from the National Association of Homebuilders set the tone for another round of strong housing data. The NAHB index rose two points to a record high 85.

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Retail sales declined 0.4% during February, while industrial production was flat (0.0%). Housing starts and permits jumped 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively.

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The beginning of this week saw some optimism that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived, but data through the rest of the week provided grim reminder of the economic damage from COVID-19.

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Retail and Industrial activity were stronger than the headline data suggest, there are also some signs of weakening.


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