This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 26August 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Aug 29, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 26August 2022

I can understand how the opportunity to participate in lots of scintillating economic policy discussions could make fishing look exciting in comparison.  Speaking of the economy, a second guesstimate at Q2 GDP is that it posted a 0.6% quarterly decline, slightly better than the first-reported 0.7% drop. New home sales fell 12.6% in July, reflecting the ongoing downshift in housing activity. Durable goods orders were essentially flat in July, while personal income and spending rose 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 58.2 in August.  Glad to hear we’re all feeling a bit better.




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The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate.

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Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.

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higher interest rates and inflation appear to be weighing on manufacturing and construction, yet service sector activity remains fairly resilient.

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Economic data were downbeat this week, as downward revisions took some of the shine out of the marquee headline numbers. Despite the somewhat weak start to Q1, economic growth continues to trek along.

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During July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up 4.7% in July. Recent signs have been more encouraging, with core CPI running at a 3.1% three-month annualized pace.

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April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.

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Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.

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While we were picking up tree limbs from the yard, data released this week generally showed a stronger economy in August than many expected in the wake of surging COVID cases.

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The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time. The housing market continues to buckle under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.


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