This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 January 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jan 18, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 January 2022

As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years. Similarly, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 9.7% over the year. Meanwhile, retail sales unexpectedly declined 1.9% in the final month of the year.  Maybe after years of promising to get our Holiday shopping done early (but never doing so), this year we finally did.




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Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.

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7 Interest Rate Watch for more detail. In other news, retail sales data disappointed as higher prices factor into spending and industrial activity continued to recover but remains beset by supply issues.

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In other economic news, output continues to ramp up across the U.S., even as the resurgence in COVID cases is leading to some pullback in consumer engagement.

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In the biggest financial news this week not connected to college football conference realignment, July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index slipped one point to 80.

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Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.

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The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.

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Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month\'s 227,000-job drop.

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The latest hiring data are an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is withstanding the global slowdown and continued trade-related uncertainty.

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After a revised look at GDP this week suggested the second quarter may not have been quite as bad as first estimated, attention shifts to the current quarter.

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More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.


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