U.S. - Consumers Pull Back as COVID Continues to Surge
- Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.
- The CPI advanced 0.4% in December (1.4% over the year). Inflation remains tepid, with core prices up 0.1% in the month.
- Initial jobless claims jumped to 965K (week end Jan. 9).
- Several Fed officials pushed back on the idea of a shift in monetary policy anytime soon.
- Industrial production rose 1.6% in December.
- Small business optimism (NFIB) dropped to 95.9 in December. Consumer sentiment (U. Michigan) slipped to 79.2 in January.
Global - International Data Mixed Over the Week
- Brazilian inflation surprised to the upside in December, rising 4.5% year-over-year. Brazil’s inflation has been steadily increasing since May amid lower interest rates, additional fiscal spending and a weaker exchange rate.
- Norwegian mainland output fell less than expected in November, suggesting risks to our Q4 GDP growth forecast are tilted toward the upside. Meanwhile, Norway’s inflation recovered in line with consensus estimates in December.
- Elsewhere, Peru’s central bank opted to continue its expansionary policy stance, holding its reference rate at 0.25% and indicated it is ready to increase stimulus if needed.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 March 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 14, 2023
Financial markets were looking for validation that January\'s unexpected strength was not a fluke and that the downward slide in economic momentum experienced late last year had stabilized.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 May 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 15, 2020
April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 December 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 15, 2022
Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 01, 2020
Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 25, 2020
Initial jobless claims rose to just over 1.4 million for the week ending July 18. Continuing claims fell to about 16.2 million. Initial claims edging higher suggests that the resurgence of COVID-19 may be taking a toll on the labor market recovery.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 15, 2020
The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 26, 2023
The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 September 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 21, 2019
The Federal Reserve reduced the fed funds rate 25 bps this week, continuing to cite economic weakness overseas and muted inflation pressures.
2021 Annual Economic Outlook
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 16, 2020
The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 14, 2020
In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.
