U.S. - Consumers Pull Back as COVID Continues to Surge
- Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.
- The CPI advanced 0.4% in December (1.4% over the year). Inflation remains tepid, with core prices up 0.1% in the month.
- Initial jobless claims jumped to 965K (week end Jan. 9).
- Several Fed officials pushed back on the idea of a shift in monetary policy anytime soon.
- Industrial production rose 1.6% in December.
- Small business optimism (NFIB) dropped to 95.9 in December. Consumer sentiment (U. Michigan) slipped to 79.2 in January.
Global - International Data Mixed Over the Week
- Brazilian inflation surprised to the upside in December, rising 4.5% year-over-year. Brazil’s inflation has been steadily increasing since May amid lower interest rates, additional fiscal spending and a weaker exchange rate.
- Norwegian mainland output fell less than expected in November, suggesting risks to our Q4 GDP growth forecast are tilted toward the upside. Meanwhile, Norway’s inflation recovered in line with consensus estimates in December.
- Elsewhere, Peru’s central bank opted to continue its expansionary policy stance, holding its reference rate at 0.25% and indicated it is ready to increase stimulus if needed.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 10, 2022
The ISM services index came in stronger than expected, and the underlying details pointed to service sector resilience with business activity and new orders notching their highest reading this year.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 24, 2021
The Wells Fargo Economics team notes in the Commentary that new COVID cases in New Zealand disrupted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand\'s plan to tighten monetary policy this week.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 19, 2021
Market attention was concentrated on the January consumer price data, as inflation has come back into focus.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 01, 2020
Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 12, 2020
Weekly first time unemployment claims highlighted an extraordinarily slow week for economic news. Jobless claims fell slightly but continuing claims fell by one million.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 20, 2022
Financial markets reacted in a zig-zag pattern to this week\'s economic data ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Price pressure is still not showing the sustained slowdown the Fed needs before it takes its foot off the throttle of tighter policy.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 18, 2020
Despite indications of lost momentum elsewhere, residential construction activity is picking up steam.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 25, 2022
The biggest economic news was Fed Chair Powell presenting the Federal Reserve\'s semiannual Monetary Policy report to Congress this week.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 26, 2021
Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-the-necks. In spite of all the difficulties, the Economic whizzes in the WF Economics team have upgraded their forecast for full-year 2021 U.S.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2020
U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.