13 January 2021 Monthly Outlook Report

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jan 19, 2021

13 January 2021 Monthly Outlook Report

The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate. Despite some near-term moderation, we are a bit more constructive on 2021 as a whole thanks to several new developments.

Stimulus to Boost Economic Growth in the U.S. 

The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021. The cause of the recent slowdown is clear. The public health situation continues to deteriorate, which has led to a patchwork of new business restrictions, diminished consumer confidence and weaker-than-anticipated consumer spending. As a result, we have altered our estimate for real GDP growth in Q4-2020 and Q1-2021, which we now expect to rise 4.0% and 1.3%, respectively, on a quarterly annualized basis.




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Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.

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Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.

August 2020 Economy At A Glance

Downstream involves the refining and processing of oil and natural gas into fuels, chemicals, and plastics. All three sectors are well-represented in Houston.

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Retail and Industrial activity were stronger than the headline data suggest, there are also some signs of weakening.

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The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting from its current stance. The data seems to be going in multiple directions all at once.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 September 2021

e move into the Labor Day weekend celebrating the 235K jobs added in August, while simultaneously lamenting that it was about half a million jobs short of expectations.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 January 2020

Mild weather helped housing starts surge 16.9% in December to a 1.61 million-unit pace, the highest in 13 years. Manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed both rose more than expected in December.

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The resurgence in COVID-19 in much of the Sun Belt appears to have topped out, although cases are rising faster in some smaller mid-Atlantic states and in parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.

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U.S. GDP declined at an annualized rate of 4.8% in the first quarter, only a hint of what is to come in the second quarter.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022

February\'s employment data showed the economy had strong momentum, but that seems pretty dated now with Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed\'s shift to a more hawkish tone on monetary policy.


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