13 January 2021 Monthly Outlook Report

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jan 19, 2021

13 January 2021 Monthly Outlook Report

The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate. Despite some near-term moderation, we are a bit more constructive on 2021 as a whole thanks to several new developments.

Stimulus to Boost Economic Growth in the U.S. 

The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021. The cause of the recent slowdown is clear. The public health situation continues to deteriorate, which has led to a patchwork of new business restrictions, diminished consumer confidence and weaker-than-anticipated consumer spending. As a result, we have altered our estimate for real GDP growth in Q4-2020 and Q1-2021, which we now expect to rise 4.0% and 1.3%, respectively, on a quarterly annualized basis.




This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 September 2021

e move into the Labor Day weekend celebrating the 235K jobs added in August, while simultaneously lamenting that it was about half a million jobs short of expectations.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 January 2020

Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2020

The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 August 2022

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that nonfarm payrolls increased 528,000 for the month of July, easily topping estimates, lowering the unemployment rate to 3.5%.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 October 2022

higher interest rates and inflation appear to be weighing on manufacturing and construction, yet service sector activity remains fairly resilient.

Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?

Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 March 2020

Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 October 2022

Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 April 2022

The key factor that will drive interest rates is the Fed’s belated effort to rein-in inflation.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 October 2023

Treasury yields surged this week due to strong economic activity, impacting expectations for longer-term rates. New home sales led to a rise in single-family permits, but spiking mortgage rates are testing builder affordability strategies.


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