Starting with the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday, this week was a light data week that ends on a sobering note with the passing yesterday of Queen Elizabeth II and the 9/11 anniversary on Sunday. The ISM services index came in stronger than expected, and the underlying details pointed to service sector resilience with business activity and new orders notching their highest reading this year.
A majority of the selected industry comments from purchasing managers pointed to supply chain challenges affecting business. But the related components of the ISM suggest bottlenecks are improving somewhat, or at least not getting worse. The supplier deliveries component fell 3.3 points last month and that, on top of the 4.1-point drop in July, puts the index at its lowest point in over two years. The easing in delivery times also helped alleviate order backlog, which fell 4.4 points to 53.9 last month.
Initial jobless claims came in a bit cooler than expected, although continuing claims were a bit worse than anticipated. As we wrote in a recent report, data on individuals filing for unemployment do not suggest the economy is currently in a recession. Claims have ticked higher, but off of an incredibly low base amid a historically tight labor market. Even with the recent increase in continuing claims, the total number of people collecting unemployment benefits is still roughly 300K below February 2020 levels. For now, the jobless claims data are sending a similar signal to the ISM services index: The U.S. economy is slowing down but not outright contracting.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 15, 2020
Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 June 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 26, 2021
Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-the-necks. In spite of all the difficulties, the Economic whizzes in the WF Economics team have upgraded their forecast for full-year 2021 U.S.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 20, 2020
Data continue to reflect an economy digging itself out of the lockdown-induced slump.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 January 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 09, 2021
Economic data came in largely as expected this week and suggest continued economic recovery.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 January 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 24, 2022
The Texans have earned a top draft position yet again, the Cowboys are home again for the remainder of the playoffs, and inflation concerns that continue to mount, along with ongoing supply chain disruptions, are weighing on homebuilder confidence.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 October 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 27, 2023
Treasury yields surged this week due to strong economic activity, impacting expectations for longer-term rates. New home sales led to a rise in single-family permits, but spiking mortgage rates are testing builder affordability strategies.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 24, 2020
The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2020
U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 May 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 17, 2023
In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead.
This Week's State Of The Economy-What Is Ahead?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 03, 2019
How will Fed rates-cut and Trump 10% tariff on $300 Billion Chinese Goods countered by Chinese currency devaluation against Dollar, affect inflation and economic slowdown in US economy?
