This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 June 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jun 26, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 June 2021

Well, here we are at the half-way point for 2021.  Maybe it’s just me, but it feels like it got here really quick this year.  Maybe it’s all the turbulence as the economy has whip-sawed back to life.  One week lumber was normal, then more expensive than a precious metal, then back again.  Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-the-necks.  In spite of all the difficulties, the Economic whizzes in the WF Economics team have upgraded their forecast for full-year 2021 U.S. GDP growth to 7.3%.  If this above-consensus forecast comes to fruition, it would be the strongest year of growth since 1951.




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Employment growth was broad-based, though reliant on a 87K gain in health care & social assistance. Modest gains from construction, financial activities and hospitality also contributed to private sector job growth.

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The housing sector has borne the brunt of the Fed\'s efforts to slow the economy, and this week\'s data showed the industry continues to reel.

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Fears of an escalating coronavirus outbreak reached the United States this week, as a Washington state man became the first confirmed domestic case and the international total reached more than 800.

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The key factor that will drive interest rates is the Fed’s belated effort to rein-in inflation.

Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?

Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.

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While we were picking up tree limbs from the yard, data released this week generally showed a stronger economy in August than many expected in the wake of surging COVID cases.

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Minutes from the January 28-29 FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates, and for the most part housing and manufacturing survey data this week supported that view.

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Real GDP jumped a record 33.1% during Q3, beating expectations. A 40.7% surge in consumer spending drove the gain.

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The resiliency of the U.S. consumer was also on display, as total retail sales increased a stronger-than-expected 1.3% in October, boosted, in part, by a 1.3% jump in motor vehicles & parts and a 4.1% rise at gasoline stations.

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Despite a few misses on the headline numbers, economic data this week highlighted a theme of demand continuing to outstrip supply and ongoing slack in the labor market.


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