25 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jan 30, 2021

25 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report

In the second installment of our series on economic risks in the foreseeable future, we analyze the potential for higher inflation in coming years stemming from excess demand. Multiple rounds of direct government aid have left many households flush with excess savings which, coupled with pent-up demand, could lead to robust consumer spending that causes prices to shoot higher as the year progresses.




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It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.

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It may be a holiday-shortened week, but there have been as many developments and economic indicators packed into three days as we can recall seeing in any other week this year.

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Although payroll growth is easing, the labor market remains relatively tight. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9% in October, slightly higher than the cycle low of 3.4% first hit in January 2023, but still low compared to historical averages.

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On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.

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The recent surge in COVID-19 cases indicates that elected officials re-opened the economy too soon, that too many Americans are flaunting social distancing guidelines, and that the virus is likely to be around longer than we’d hoped.

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Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.

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The FOMC hiked the federal funds rate by 25 bps on Wednesday amid continued strength in the labor market and elevated inflation.

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Stronger-than-expected inflation, underpinned by the mildly hawkish minutes from the January FOMC meeting, drove a move higher in mortgage rates.

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The Federal Reserve can afford patience thanks to a resilient labor market. During April, total nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000 net jobs, continuing a string of solid monthly payroll additions.


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