Key takeaways from this week (Google data through October 16, Apple data through October 19)
- Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits. The U.S., Germany and Japan are more or less stable. These trends are more or less consistent with new COVID cases, as mobility is suffering most in countries in which COVID outbreaks are more severe. Many French cities remain under nightly curfews and Italy recently moved to impose a curfew in the Lombardy region.
- U.S. activity is still flat-lining. The stability in U.S. retail/recreation visits is remarkable. It has been stuck right around 15% below the January baseline since June. Most notable at the state level is the recent drop in activity in New York, while Florida, California and Texas are showing a slight uptick.
- Canada is emerging as a laggard, while Japan is pulling ahead. Canadian activity has slowed markedly in recent weeks and is only just ahead of U.K. figures. Canada’s COVID cases are steadily rising, and certain parts of the country have been designated as “red zones,” in which bars, restaurants and other venues are forced to close. Japan, meanwhile, is seeing far fewer new cases of COVID and has seen sturdier retail/recreation activity trends.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 16, 2019
Retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.3% in October, reflecting the ongoing strength of the consumer. Control group sales, a major input to GDP, also increased 0.3%.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 09, 2020
Data this week continued to suggest the U.S. economy hit rock bottom in April. Still, it is a long road to recovery and the pickup in economic activity will be gradual.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2020
In the immediate fallout after the lockdowns in the early stages of this pandemic, there was a lot of discussion about the shape of the recovery.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 27, 2022
I’ll wish you a Happy Earth Day anyway. Don’t expect a card this year. While the Earth continues to thankfully revolve at a steady rate, rising mortgage rates appear to be slowing residential activity
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 27, 2023
Treasury yields surged this week due to strong economic activity, impacting expectations for longer-term rates. New home sales led to a rise in single-family permits, but spiking mortgage rates are testing builder affordability strategies.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 15, 2020
Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 30, 2021
In the biggest financial news this week not connected to college football conference realignment, July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index slipped one point to 80.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2021
Despite a few misses on the headline numbers, economic data this week highlighted a theme of demand continuing to outstrip supply and ongoing slack in the labor market.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2021
This week\'s economic data kicked of with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped more than eight points to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index\'s 24-year history.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 08, 2023
This week brought glimpses of market stabilization after weeks of turmoil. Although consumers seem unfazed by the uproar, tighter credit conditions coming down the pipeline will likely weigh on growth.