This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 October 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 24, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 October 2020

U.S. - All Things Housing Appear to Be On a Roll

  • A recent strong report from the National Association of Homebuilders set the tone for another round of strong housing data. The NAHB index rose two points to a record high 85.
  • A drop in new apartment construction led to a below consensus housing starts report but single-family starts rose solidly.
  • Existing home sales easily topped expectations, with sales jumping 9.4% to a 6.54-million unit pace.
  • Weekly first-time unemployment claims declined more than expected and continuing claims fell by more than one million.

 

Global - China Leading the Global Economic Recovery

  • Q3 GDP data revealed China is still leading the global economic recovery from the COVID induced downturn. In addition, leading indicators of activity beat expectations in September, giving us slightly more optimism around the health of China’s economy heading into the end of the year.
  • As Eurozone countries grapple with a second wave of COVID cases and new localized lockdown protocol, activity and sentiment data could start to deteriorate. In that context, the services PMI declined more than expected in October; however, the manufacturing PMI beat expectations and surprised to the upside.



Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?

Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 February 2020

The COVID-19 coronavirus hammered financial markets this week and rapidly raised the perceived likelihood and magnitude of additional Fed accommodation.

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The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.

This Week's State Of The Economy-What Is Ahead?

How will Fed rates-cut and Trump 10% tariff on $300 Billion Chinese Goods countered by Chinese currency devaluation against Dollar, affect inflation and economic slowdown in US economy?

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I can understand how the opportunity to participate in lots of scintillating economic policy discussions could make fishing look exciting in comparison.

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July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.

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The resiliency of the U.S. consumer was also on display, as total retail sales increased a stronger-than-expected 1.3% in October, boosted, in part, by a 1.3% jump in motor vehicles & parts and a 4.1% rise at gasoline stations.

November 2020 Economy At A Glance

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent, or $1.3 trillion in Q3, adjusted for inflation.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 November 2020

The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.

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Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery.


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