This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 January 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jan 04, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 January 2020

U.S - Geopolitical Developments Ring in the New Year

  • It was a light week for economic data in a shortened holiday week. But, news of President Trump ordering an airstrike in Iraq and killing a top Iranian military general resulted in a risk off response from markets as oil prices surged and Treasury yields fell early Friday morning.
  • Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.
  • The Conference Board reported a decrease in consumer confidence for the final month of the year, but we continue to see strong consumer fundamentals.

 

Global - China Showing Signs of Stabilization

  • China’s economic activity and PMI data have improved and beat consensus forecasts in November and December. While we continue to believe China’s economy will decelerate in the coming years, a Phase I trade deal and reduction to the reserve requirement ratio for Chinese banks should provide some support to China’s economy.
  • Chile’s economy continues to be disrupted by political protests, with the most recent data indicating the economy contracted for the second consecutive month. Given the updated data, it is likely Chile’s economy contracted in Q4-2019 and could fall into technical recession in 2020.



This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 April 2023

The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

Vaccines are here, but they are not yet widely available in a way that can stem the spread of a disease that grows by 200K a day.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 January 2020

Mild weather helped housing starts surge 16.9% in December to a 1.61 million-unit pace, the highest in 13 years. Manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed both rose more than expected in December.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 May 2023

In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 November 2022

Relief in October inflation gives the FOMC the ability to slow the pace of rate hikes ahead. But make no mistake, the Fed\'s job of taming inflation remains far from over.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 January 2023

Real GDP expanded at a 2.9% annualized pace in Q4. While beating expectations, the underlying details were not as encouraging. Moreover, the weakening monthly indicator performances to end the year suggest the decelerating trend will continue in Q1.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 March 2022

Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine continues to consume nearly all media attention and has created a level of volatility that is not yet reflected in the data released this week.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 February 2022

Deep thought for the week, if a tree falls in the forest, or an Olympics occurs, and no one is there to hear it or see it, did it really occur?

2021 Annual Economic Outlook

The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 June 2021

Okay, so I’ve gotten about half a dozen calls since Wednesday asking if I saw the May CPI numbers that came out this week.


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