U.S - Geopolitical Developments Ring in the New Year
- It was a light week for economic data in a shortened holiday week. But, news of President Trump ordering an airstrike in Iraq and killing a top Iranian military general resulted in a risk off response from markets as oil prices surged and Treasury yields fell early Friday morning.
- Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.
- The Conference Board reported a decrease in consumer confidence for the final month of the year, but we continue to see strong consumer fundamentals.
Global - China Showing Signs of Stabilization
- China’s economic activity and PMI data have improved and beat consensus forecasts in November and December. While we continue to believe China’s economy will decelerate in the coming years, a Phase I trade deal and reduction to the reserve requirement ratio for Chinese banks should provide some support to China’s economy.
- Chile’s economy continues to be disrupted by political protests, with the most recent data indicating the economy contracted for the second consecutive month. Given the updated data, it is likely Chile’s economy contracted in Q4-2019 and could fall into technical recession in 2020.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 26, 2023
The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 04, 2020
It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.
Rising COVID-19 Cases Put A Damper On Re-openings
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 27, 2020
The rising number of COVID-19 infections gained momentum this week, with most of the rise occurring in the South and West. The rise in infections is larger than can be explained by increased testing alone and is slowing re-openings.
25 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 30, 2021
In the second installment of our series on economic risks in the foreseeable future, we analyze the potential for higher inflation in coming years stemming from excess demand.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 08, 2022
February\'s employment data showed the economy had strong momentum, but that seems pretty dated now with Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed\'s shift to a more hawkish tone on monetary policy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 15, 2020
The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 03, 2023
U.S. Economy expands but at a weak rate. Regional bank failures cause corporate investment spreads to widen again. House Republicans pass bills that affect the debt ceiling.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 September 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 21, 2019
The Federal Reserve reduced the fed funds rate 25 bps this week, continuing to cite economic weakness overseas and muted inflation pressures.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 February 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 27, 2024
Stronger-than-expected inflation, underpinned by the mildly hawkish minutes from the January FOMC meeting, drove a move higher in mortgage rates.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 December 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 21, 2023
core CPI remained elevated in November at a 4.0% annual rate, a string of slower monthly prints suggests that disinflation has more room to run.
