U.S - Geopolitical Developments Ring in the New Year
- It was a light week for economic data in a shortened holiday week. But, news of President Trump ordering an airstrike in Iraq and killing a top Iranian military general resulted in a risk off response from markets as oil prices surged and Treasury yields fell early Friday morning.
- Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.
- The Conference Board reported a decrease in consumer confidence for the final month of the year, but we continue to see strong consumer fundamentals.
Global - China Showing Signs of Stabilization
- China’s economic activity and PMI data have improved and beat consensus forecasts in November and December. While we continue to believe China’s economy will decelerate in the coming years, a Phase I trade deal and reduction to the reserve requirement ratio for Chinese banks should provide some support to China’s economy.
- Chile’s economy continues to be disrupted by political protests, with the most recent data indicating the economy contracted for the second consecutive month. Given the updated data, it is likely Chile’s economy contracted in Q4-2019 and could fall into technical recession in 2020.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 28, 2019
The release of the transcript of President Trump\'s phone conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the whistle blower complaint overshadowed most of this week\'s economic reports and took bond yields modestly lower.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 15, 2020
Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 04, 2020
U.S. GDP declined at an annualized rate of 4.8% in the first quarter, only a hint of what is to come in the second quarter.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 18, 2020
The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 26, 2021
Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-the-necks. In spite of all the difficulties, the Economic whizzes in the WF Economics team have upgraded their forecast for full-year 2021 U.S.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 25, 2020
Fears of an escalating coronavirus outbreak reached the United States this week, as a Washington state man became the first confirmed domestic case and the international total reached more than 800.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 24, 2021
The Wells Fargo Economics team notes in the Commentary that new COVID cases in New Zealand disrupted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand\'s plan to tighten monetary policy this week.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 21, 2020
This week marked the first U.S. COVID vaccinations and the imminent rollout of a second vaccine.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 13, 2021
Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 13, 2020
Lock downs began to be lifted across most of the country by the end of May and the total amount of daily new coronavirus cases has been trending lower. But the flattening case count has not been consistent across the country.