This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 January 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jan 04, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 January 2020

U.S - Geopolitical Developments Ring in the New Year

  • It was a light week for economic data in a shortened holiday week. But, news of President Trump ordering an airstrike in Iraq and killing a top Iranian military general resulted in a risk off response from markets as oil prices surged and Treasury yields fell early Friday morning.
  • Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.
  • The Conference Board reported a decrease in consumer confidence for the final month of the year, but we continue to see strong consumer fundamentals.

 

Global - China Showing Signs of Stabilization

  • China’s economic activity and PMI data have improved and beat consensus forecasts in November and December. While we continue to believe China’s economy will decelerate in the coming years, a Phase I trade deal and reduction to the reserve requirement ratio for Chinese banks should provide some support to China’s economy.
  • Chile’s economy continues to be disrupted by political protests, with the most recent data indicating the economy contracted for the second consecutive month. Given the updated data, it is likely Chile’s economy contracted in Q4-2019 and could fall into technical recession in 2020.



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As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.

August 2020 Economy At A Glance

Downstream involves the refining and processing of oil and natural gas into fuels, chemicals, and plastics. All three sectors are well-represented in Houston.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 June 2022

CPI increases continue to sizzle like this weekend’s temperature, putting consumers in a worse mood than Texas Rangers fans (with their 9.5 games back $500 million middle infield).

The Regional Breakdown Of A Labor Market In Meltdown

Employment fell in all 50 states and 43 states saw their unemployment rate rise to a record in April. The damage is already hard to fathom-a 28% unemployment rate in Nevada and still another month of job losses ahead.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 June 2021

Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-the-necks. In spite of all the difficulties, the Economic whizzes in the WF Economics team have upgraded their forecast for full-year 2021 U.S.

This Week's State Of The Economy-What Is Ahead?

How will Fed rates-cut and Trump 10% tariff on $300 Billion Chinese Goods countered by Chinese currency devaluation against Dollar, affect inflation and economic slowdown in US economy?

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 September 2022

More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.

September 2020 Economy At A Glance

A March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found most exploration firms need West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI) at $49 per barrel or higher to profitably drill a well.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 August 2020

There were more signs of global recovery this week and PMI surveys improved further across the world.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 June 2020

Lock downs began to be lifted across most of the country by the end of May and the total amount of daily new coronavirus cases has been trending lower. But the flattening case count has not been consistent across the country.


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