Economic Uncertainty Seems Removed Going Into The New Year 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Dec 28, 2019

Economic Uncertainty Seems Removed Going Into The New Year 2020

U.S. Outlook

  • The U.S. economy continues to expand, albeit at a moderate pace. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in Q3/19. For the 12 months ending Q3, the U.S. grew 2.0 percent, adjusted for inflation. While somewhat off the pace of the past five years, it’s above what many economists expected. The rate also falls near the long-term average for the economy.

 

Global Outlook

  • The outlook for global growth looks better today than it did a year ago. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects the global economy to grow 3.0 percent in ’20, marginally above the 2.9 percent ...

You will see following content inside the report:

  1. USMCA bill passed with phase one deal announced
  2. Industrial production jumped in November
  3. Residential activity post solid gains, new home sales expanding



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Highly anticipated Consumer Price Index report surprised to the upside. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in September, and core CPI increased 0.6%.

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The ISM services index came in stronger than expected, and the underlying details pointed to service sector resilience with business activity and new orders notching their highest reading this year.

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The U.S. labor market continues to defy expectations. Employers added 272K net new jobs in May, which was stronger than even the most bullish forecaster among 77 submissions to the Bloomberg survey.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 August 2022

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that nonfarm payrolls increased 528,000 for the month of July, easily topping estimates, lowering the unemployment rate to 3.5%.

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The Federal Reserve can afford patience thanks to a resilient labor market. During April, total nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000 net jobs, continuing a string of solid monthly payroll additions.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 March 2023

Retail sales declined 0.4% during February, while industrial production was flat (0.0%). Housing starts and permits jumped 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 September 2022

More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.

28 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report

In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 October 2023

Treasury yields surged this week due to strong economic activity, impacting expectations for longer-term rates. New home sales led to a rise in single-family permits, but spiking mortgage rates are testing builder affordability strategies.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 September 2023

On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.


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