This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 January 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jan 11, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 January 2020

U.S. - Well, That De-Escalated Quickly

  • The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday. Iran responded with non-lethal airstrikes on U.S. facilities, but President Trump has said the U.S. has no plans to escalate further, and the Iranians appear to have concluded their response for now.
  • Compared to just prior to the drone strike, U.S. stocks are higher as is the dollar and the price for a barrel of oil (after spiking briefly) is now about $2.00 lower.
  • The job market continued to expand adding another 145K jobs although wages rose the least since mid-2018.

 

Global - A (Mostly) Happy New Year

  • It was a relatively busy week for international data and events. In the Eurozone, inflation increased in December at the fastest pace since April, an encouraging sign for the ECB, while European industrial data were sturdy.
  • Canadian employment rebounded in December after two straight months of declines, lessening concerns about a slowdown in job growth.
  • In Mexico, the data was not as promising, however. Mexico’s consumer prices eased further in December and industrial production disappointed in November, supporting the case for additional monetary policy easing from the central bank.



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Economic data came in largely as expected this week and suggest continued economic recovery.

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Market attention was concentrated on the January consumer price data, as inflation has come back into focus.

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The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate.

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The COVID-19 coronavirus hammered financial markets this week and rapidly raised the perceived likelihood and magnitude of additional Fed accommodation.

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There were more signs of global recovery this week and PMI surveys improved further across the world.

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The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.

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Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.

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Manufacturing held up relatively well in November, despite a larger-than-expected dip in the ISM manufacturing survey. The nonfarm manufacturing survey rose slightly.

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Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits.

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Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.


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