COVID-19 UPDATE
The recent surge in COVID-19 cases indicates that elected officials re-opened the economy too soon, that too many Americans are flaunting social distancing guidelines, and that the virus is likely to be around longer than we’d hoped. On July 14, the U.S. recorded nearly 59,000 new cases, up from 22,000 cases on June 14. Texas logged 10,745 cases that day, Houston nearly 2,600 cases. That’s a five fold increase over the month for the state and the metro area.
Business Closures
The popular website Yelp.com publishes crowd-sourced reviews on local restaurants, retailers, entertainment venues and personal services. Yelp reports that 177,000 U.S. business on its site were closed between March 1 and April 19. As of June 15, only 37,000 had reopened. In Houston, the pandemic forced the closure of 3,518 Yelp businesses, of which only 578 had re-opened by mid-June.
The Outlook
The current recession can no longer be seen as a brief shutdown in which Congress passes enough safety nets and stimulus packages to bridge the gap. The number of active business owners in the U.S. plummeted by 3.3 million or 22 percent in March and April.
Though the nation has recouped some of the jobs lost in March and April, there are still 16.6 million unemployed workers in the U.S.
HOUSTON EMPLOYMENT UPDATE
Metro Houston added 73,800 jobs in May, a record for any month. The jump came as Governor Greg Abbott issued orders reopening the state’s economy early in the month. Despite the surge, local employment remains 276,400 jobs below its February pre-COVID level. The largest job gains occurred in accommodation and food services, retail and health care. Mining and logging (energy), professional, scientific and technical services, other services, and government continued to lose jobs. Only finance and insurance has returned to its pre-COVID employment level.
Crude Oil
The closing spot price for West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, averaged $39.22 per barrel the last week of June ’20, down 32.8 percent from $58.38 for the same period in ’19.
Home Sales
Houston realtors sold 9,238 single-family homes in June ’20, up 15.7 percent from 8,063 in June ’19. The average price for a single-family home sold in June was $319,881, down 0.6 percent from $321,884 a year earlier. The month ended with 11,610 pending sales, a 39.3 percent increase over June ’19.
Rig Count
Baker Hughes reports 258 drilling rigs working in the U.S. during the first week of July ’20. That’s down 700 rigs, or 73.1 percent, from the same week in July ’19.
Unemployment
Houston’s unemployment rate fell from 14.2 in April to 13.9 in May. It had been as low as 3.9 percent in February.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 13, 2021
Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 May 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 23, 2024
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was a bit firm in April, rising 0.5% amid higher services prices, though it did come with slight downward revisions to prior month\'s data.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 December 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 07, 2019
The latest hiring data are an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is withstanding the global slowdown and continued trade-related uncertainty.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 May 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2024
Homebuying retreated in April following a leg up in mortgage rates. Meanwhile, durable goods orders surprised to the upside, suggesting the manufacturing industry is on better footing.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 May 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 25, 2021
Over the past year, the housing market has become white-hot.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 April 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 05, 2022
The key factor that will drive interest rates is the Fed’s belated effort to rein-in inflation.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2020
U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19August 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 23, 2022
July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection...
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 October 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2021
Economic data this week indicated that the ongoing expansion still has some momentum despite some familiar headwinds, though this week\'s releases were largely overshadowed by a busy week on Capitol Hill.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 September 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 02, 2023
On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.
