Markets gyrated this week as the spread between the ten- and two-year Treasury's turned negative for the first time since 2007. Financial markets seem to expect that the sharp slowdown in growth overseas will soon spread to the United States. Economic data this week, however, continued to say otherwise. Retail sales again beat expectations, rising 0.7% in July. Sales were boosted by the 2.8% surge at non-store retailers (read: Amazon Prime Day,) but were broad-based. Ten of 13 categories posted increases, while core sales jumped 1.0%. Consumer confidence may get another boost heading into the holiday season on news Tuesday that the administration will delay the imposition of 10% tariffs on approximately $155 billion of imports from China that were scheduled to go into effect September 1. The exempted products electronics, toys, etc... suggest the delay is intended to shield consumers from a tariff-related surge in prices just before the gift-giving season and to shield the administration from political blowback. The consumer which comprises roughly 70% of the economy has been carrying the weight the past few quarters, and to a large extent has avoided much of a spill over from all the trade uncertainty.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 20, 2024
The out-of-consensus start to the year for economic data continued with a slip in retail sales and industrial production followed by a startling 14.8% drop in housing starts during January.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 04, 2020
Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2022
Unlike Yordan Alvarez, no one is expecting the Fed to stand back and admire their handiwork after this weeks 50 basis point increase in the Fed Discount Rate. Similar to Yordan, their effort is more of a single and not a home run.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 10, 2022
The ISM services index came in stronger than expected, and the underlying details pointed to service sector resilience with business activity and new orders notching their highest reading this year.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2022
higher interest rates and inflation appear to be weighing on manufacturing and construction, yet service sector activity remains fairly resilient.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 08, 2022
While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 30, 2020
The beginning of this week saw some optimism that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived, but data through the rest of the week provided grim reminder of the economic damage from COVID-19.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 09, 2019
Optimism soared this week on hopes of a forthcoming trade deal, as equity markets hit all-time highs and the yield curve steepened.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 05, 2023
U.S. data released this week indicates the economic expansion remains alive even as inflation continues to slow. The year-ago rates of headline and core PCE inflation were the lowest since March 2021 and April 2021, respectively.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 04, 2020
It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.