U.S. - Jobs Rebound Continues, But Signs of Moderation Ahead
- Employers added jobs for the fourth consecutive month in August, bringing the total number of jobs recovered from the virus-related low to 10.5 million. Although the labor market continued to improve, the pace of job growth is moderating.
- The one million private jobs added is down from an average of about 2.4 million the prior three months. Further, there are still nearly 30 million workers collecting unemployment insurance.
- The rebound in the labor market should continue, but we do not expect employment to reach its pre-virus position for quite some time.
Global - Q2 GDP Data Continues to Underwhelm
- While expectations for Q2 GDP were dismal, data this week continued to demonstrate how severe the COVID-19 impact has been on economic activity. In India, the economy contracted significantly in Q2, while in Brazil, the economy missed consensus forecasts and experienced the largest decline on record.
Euro zone Inflation Decelerates More Than Expected
- Inflation in the Euro zone surprised to the downside this week as headline CPI turned negative in August. The decline was surprising given the amount of support policymakers have provided the Euro zone economy.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2021
The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone\'s throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart).
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 30, 2021
In the biggest financial news this week not connected to college football conference realignment, July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index slipped one point to 80.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 15, 2022
Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 20, 2022
After last week\'s stronger-than-expected CPI, less surprising was the 75 point rate increase put forth by the Fed.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 11, 2023
In April, employers added 253K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. During the same month, the ISM services index edged up to 51.9, while the ISM manufacturing index improved to 47.1.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 03, 2019
How will Fed rates-cut and Trump 10% tariff on $300 Billion Chinese Goods countered by Chinese currency devaluation against Dollar, affect inflation and economic slowdown in US economy?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 28, 2023
Real GDP expanded at a 2.9% annualized pace in Q4. While beating expectations, the underlying details were not as encouraging. Moreover, the weakening monthly indicator performances to end the year suggest the decelerating trend will continue in Q1.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 17, 2019
Markets gyrated this week as the spread between the ten- and two-year Treasury\'s turned negative for the first time since 2007. Financial markets seem to expect that the sharp slowdown in growth overseas will soon spread to the United States.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 26, 2021
Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-the-necks. In spite of all the difficulties, the Economic whizzes in the WF Economics team have upgraded their forecast for full-year 2021 U.S.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 04, 2023
During January, payrolls jumped by 517K, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.5%-4.75% this week.