This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Sep 13, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021

Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.  Tomorrow his Alabama Crimson Tide tackle the mighty Mercer Bears (whose football program dates all the way back to….2013).  In other data from the past week, the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey for July indicated that the labor market was tighter than other measures may suggest. While the July JOLTS data are a bit dated, given the evolution of the pandemic over the past two months, initial jobless claims have continued to come down and reached a post-pandemic low in the week of September 4.  Maybe all is not lost.




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The out-of-consensus start to the year for economic data continued with a slip in retail sales and industrial production followed by a startling 14.8% drop in housing starts during January.

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As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.

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The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.

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The re-opening of the country is getting underway, with all 50 states starting to roll back restrictions.

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The rising number of COVID-19 infections gained momentum this week, with most of the rise occurring in the South and West. The rise in infections is larger than can be explained by increased testing alone and is slowing re-openings.

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On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.

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The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting from its current stance. The data seems to be going in multiple directions all at once.

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What do pollen and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have in common? Answer; both are hitting new highs. This week’s U.S. economic data was led by the largest month monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since September 2005.

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Data continue to reflect an economy digging itself out of the lockdown-induced slump.


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