This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Sep 13, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021

Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.  Tomorrow his Alabama Crimson Tide tackle the mighty Mercer Bears (whose football program dates all the way back to….2013).  In other data from the past week, the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey for July indicated that the labor market was tighter than other measures may suggest. While the July JOLTS data are a bit dated, given the evolution of the pandemic over the past two months, initial jobless claims have continued to come down and reached a post-pandemic low in the week of September 4.  Maybe all is not lost.




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U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.

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Markets gyrated this week as the spread between the ten- and two-year Treasury\'s turned negative for the first time since 2007. Financial markets seem to expect that the sharp slowdown in growth overseas will soon spread to the United States.

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As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.

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Deep thought for the week, if a tree falls in the forest, or an Olympics occurs, and no one is there to hear it or see it, did it really occur?

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The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting from its current stance. The data seems to be going in multiple directions all at once.

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Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut. In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.

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While fears of an Evergrande default in China were rattling financial markets, for those of us in Southeast Texas who have survived the typically very hot months of July, August and September, this week brought the very welcome first early fall-like

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It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.

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Optimism soared this week on hopes of a forthcoming trade deal, as equity markets hit all-time highs and the yield curve steepened.


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