This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Sep 13, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021

Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.  Tomorrow his Alabama Crimson Tide tackle the mighty Mercer Bears (whose football program dates all the way back to….2013).  In other data from the past week, the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey for July indicated that the labor market was tighter than other measures may suggest. While the July JOLTS data are a bit dated, given the evolution of the pandemic over the past two months, initial jobless claims have continued to come down and reached a post-pandemic low in the week of September 4.  Maybe all is not lost.




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Initial jobless claims rose to just over 1.4 million for the week ending July 18. Continuing claims fell to about 16.2 million. Initial claims edging higher suggests that the resurgence of COVID-19 may be taking a toll on the labor market recovery.

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Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-the-necks. In spite of all the difficulties, the Economic whizzes in the WF Economics team have upgraded their forecast for full-year 2021 U.S.

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Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.

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Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.

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Data this week continued to suggest the U.S. economy hit rock bottom in April. Still, it is a long road to recovery and the pickup in economic activity will be gradual.

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The sudden stop in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic means that many businesses will need to rely on their cash reserves to survive the next few months.

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The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.

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In what was a jam-packed week of economic data, the jobs report, prospects of additional fiscal stimulus and the president’s positive COVID-19 test result commanded markets’ attention.

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The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 September 2020

European activity is surging. Germany and Italy are leading the way, but France is close behind despite an ongoing rise in cases. The Google data are a bit outdated, but are hard to reconcile with today’s weak Eurozone services PMI figures.


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