U.S. - Loss of Momentum Sets Up Weak Q1, but Recovery Pace Contingent on Vaccine Deployment
- Economic data came in largely as expected this week and suggest continued economic recovery.
- Real GDP growth advanced at a strong 4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. The loss of momentum toward the end of the quarter, however, sets up a weak reading for growth in the first quarter of this year.
- An additional 847K workers filed an initial claim for unemployment insurance. The labor market isn't expected to meaningfully recover until the virus is brought under control.
- The FOMC largely left policy unchanged at its meeting this week. It kept the federal funds rate at the zero lower bound and will continue to purchase Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities at the current rate. See Interest Rate Watch for more detail.
Global - Two Roads Diverged in the Global Economy
- In what was a relatively quiet week on the international economic data front, two major economies reported real GDP data for Q4-2020. After almost a year since COVID emerged, South Korea's initial headwinds have turned into tailwinds, and the real GDP data reported this week provided evidence that the country's economy weathered 2020 fairly well given the circumstances.
- Mexico also reported Q4-2020 real GDP data this week, and it showed the ongoing economic challenges facing America's southern neighbor. The pace of decline on a year-over-year basis lessened, but the Mexican economy was still 4.5% smaller in Q4-2020 compared to the year prior.
28 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2021
In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 January 2025
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 13, 2025
Meetings of the Federal Reserve\'s Open Markets Committee are about what the Fed is doing; minutes of those meetings tell you something about what policymakers are thinking.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 28, 2020
It may be a holiday-shortened week, but there have been as many developments and economic indicators packed into three days as we can recall seeing in any other week this year.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2021
This week\'s economic data kicked of with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped more than eight points to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index\'s 24-year history.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 26, 2023
The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.
25 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 30, 2021
In the second installment of our series on economic risks in the foreseeable future, we analyze the potential for higher inflation in coming years stemming from excess demand.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 18, 2020
Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 March 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 14, 2020
Financial conditions tightened sharply this week as concerns over the coronavirus and the economic fallout of containment efforts mounted.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 June 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 20, 2024
On Wednesday, the May CPI data showed that consumer prices were unchanged in the month, the first flat reading for the CPI since July 2022.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 October 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 15, 2021
September\'s disappointing employment report clearly takes center stage over this week\'s other economic reports. Nonfarm employment rose by just 194,000 jobs, as employers continue to have trouble finding the workers they need.