U.S. - Loss of Momentum Sets Up Weak Q1, but Recovery Pace Contingent on Vaccine Deployment
- Economic data came in largely as expected this week and suggest continued economic recovery.
- Real GDP growth advanced at a strong 4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. The loss of momentum toward the end of the quarter, however, sets up a weak reading for growth in the first quarter of this year.
- An additional 847K workers filed an initial claim for unemployment insurance. The labor market isn't expected to meaningfully recover until the virus is brought under control.
- The FOMC largely left policy unchanged at its meeting this week. It kept the federal funds rate at the zero lower bound and will continue to purchase Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities at the current rate. See Interest Rate Watch for more detail.
Global - Two Roads Diverged in the Global Economy
- In what was a relatively quiet week on the international economic data front, two major economies reported real GDP data for Q4-2020. After almost a year since COVID emerged, South Korea's initial headwinds have turned into tailwinds, and the real GDP data reported this week provided evidence that the country's economy weathered 2020 fairly well given the circumstances.
- Mexico also reported Q4-2020 real GDP data this week, and it showed the ongoing economic challenges facing America's southern neighbor. The pace of decline on a year-over-year basis lessened, but the Mexican economy was still 4.5% smaller in Q4-2020 compared to the year prior.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 05, 2022
More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 December 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 07, 2019
The latest hiring data are an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is withstanding the global slowdown and continued trade-related uncertainty.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2023
Employers added jobs at the slowest pace since 2020 in March, job openings fell and an upward trend in initial jobless claims has emerged.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 29, 2020
The COVID-19 coronavirus hammered financial markets this week and rapidly raised the perceived likelihood and magnitude of additional Fed accommodation.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 15, 2020
Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
13 January 2021 Monthly Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 19, 2021
The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 March 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 21, 2020
Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 26August 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 29, 2022
I can understand how the opportunity to participate in lots of scintillating economic policy discussions could make fishing look exciting in comparison.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 December 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 14, 2020
Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.
Rising COVID-19 Cases Put A Damper On Re-openings
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 27, 2020
The rising number of COVID-19 infections gained momentum this week, with most of the rise occurring in the South and West. The rise in infections is larger than can be explained by increased testing alone and is slowing re-openings.
