This week's durable goods report was largely disappointing with the 2.2% headline decline, partly the result of a sharp drop in civilian aircraft orders. Excluding the transportation sector, orders still fell 0.6%. With some upward revisions to prior data and a better-than-expected outturn for shipments of core capital goods, equipment spending is still tracking with our Q1 forecast for a 5.7% annualized growth rate.
The fact that capital goods shipments surprised on the upside was one of the few things that went right in this week's durable goods report. Stripping out the volatile defense and aircraft components tends to reveal the underlying trend in activity, and revisions to core orders and shipments were fairly positive. But core capital goods orders declined 0.3% during the month after a 1.3% gain to start the year, suggesting some stalling in activity in February.
Since the GDP account counts bookings once shipped, shipments are the more important indicator when considering the impact on rst quarter growth. Core capital goods shipments (including aircraft) rose a more modest 0.2% in February after near 2% gains in the prior two consecutive months. Despite the step down in growth, the solid start to the quarter still leaves equipment spending in a decent position
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 January 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 24, 2022
The Texans have earned a top draft position yet again, the Cowboys are home again for the remainder of the playoffs, and inflation concerns that continue to mount, along with ongoing supply chain disruptions, are weighing on homebuilder confidence.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 18, 2020
Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 15, 2020
The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 August 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 19, 2021
The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 May 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 04, 2024
Markets digested a light lineup of economic data on the holiday-shortened week. The second look at first quarter GDP revealed an economy increasingly pressured by high interest rates as headline growth was revised lower.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 10, 2021
e move into the Labor Day weekend celebrating the 235K jobs added in August, while simultaneously lamenting that it was about half a million jobs short of expectations.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19 July 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 22, 2024
Retail sales, housing starts and industrial production all surprised to the upside this week.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 July 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 27, 2022
July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 March 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 07, 2020
An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.
Economic Uncertainty Seems Removed Going Into The New Year 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 28, 2019
The U.S. economy continues to expand, albeit at a moderate pace. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in Q3/19.