This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 March 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Mar 27, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 March 2022

This week's durable goods report was largely disappointing with the 2.2% headline decline, partly the result of a sharp drop in civilian aircraft orders. Excluding the transportation sector, orders still fell 0.6%. With some upward revisions to prior data and a better-than-expected outturn for shipments of core capital goods, equipment spending is still tracking with our Q1 forecast for a 5.7% annualized growth rate.

The fact that capital goods shipments surprised on the upside was one of the few things that went right in this week's durable goods report. Stripping out the volatile defense and aircraft components tends to reveal the underlying trend in activity, and revisions to core orders and shipments were fairly positive. But core capital goods orders declined 0.3% during the month after a 1.3% gain to start the year, suggesting some stalling in activity in February.

Since the GDP account counts bookings once shipped, shipments are the more important indicator when considering the impact on rst quarter growth. Core capital goods shipments (including aircraft) rose a more modest 0.2% in February after near 2% gains in the prior two consecutive months. Despite the step down in growth, the solid start to the quarter still leaves equipment spending in a decent position




November 2020 Economy At A Glance

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent, or $1.3 trillion in Q3, adjusted for inflation.

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Real GDP jumped a record 33.1% during Q3, beating expectations. A 40.7% surge in consumer spending drove the gain.

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Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.

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Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits.

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The beginning of this week saw some optimism that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived, but data through the rest of the week provided grim reminder of the economic damage from COVID-19.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.

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Economic data continue to suggest the U.S. economy is only gradually losing momentum. Consumers continue to spend, and industrial and housing activity are seeing some stabilization.

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The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.

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Employers added jobs for the fourth consecutive month in August, bringing the total number of jobs recovered from the virus-related low to 10.5 million.

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U.S. Economy expands but at a weak rate. Regional bank failures cause corporate investment spreads to widen again. House Republicans pass bills that affect the debt ceiling.


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