This week's durable goods report was largely disappointing with the 2.2% headline decline, partly the result of a sharp drop in civilian aircraft orders. Excluding the transportation sector, orders still fell 0.6%. With some upward revisions to prior data and a better-than-expected outturn for shipments of core capital goods, equipment spending is still tracking with our Q1 forecast for a 5.7% annualized growth rate.
The fact that capital goods shipments surprised on the upside was one of the few things that went right in this week's durable goods report. Stripping out the volatile defense and aircraft components tends to reveal the underlying trend in activity, and revisions to core orders and shipments were fairly positive. But core capital goods orders declined 0.3% during the month after a 1.3% gain to start the year, suggesting some stalling in activity in February.
Since the GDP account counts bookings once shipped, shipments are the more important indicator when considering the impact on rst quarter growth. Core capital goods shipments (including aircraft) rose a more modest 0.2% in February after near 2% gains in the prior two consecutive months. Despite the step down in growth, the solid start to the quarter still leaves equipment spending in a decent position
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 23, 2021
While we were picking up tree limbs from the yard, data released this week generally showed a stronger economy in August than many expected in the wake of surging COVID cases.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 28, 2019
A series of U.K. general election polls released this week continue to show Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party with a significant lead over the opposition Labor Party.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 28, 2019
The release of the transcript of President Trump\'s phone conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the whistle blower complaint overshadowed most of this week\'s economic reports and took bond yields modestly lower.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 19, 2020
A March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found most exploration firms need West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI) at $49 per barrel or higher to profitably drill a well.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2022
U.S. retail sales topped expectations in April, while industrial production also grew more rapidly than economists expected. Data on housing starts, home sales and homebuilder sentiment, however, showed tentative signs of cooling.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 30, 2020
The beginning of this week saw some optimism that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived, but data through the rest of the week provided grim reminder of the economic damage from COVID-19.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 29, 2020
In what was a jam-packed week of economic data, the jobs report, prospects of additional fiscal stimulus and the president’s positive COVID-19 test result commanded markets’ attention.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 15, 2021
September\'s disappointing employment report clearly takes center stage over this week\'s other economic reports. Nonfarm employment rose by just 194,000 jobs, as employers continue to have trouble finding the workers they need.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 15, 2020
The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2021
While fears of an Evergrande default in China were rattling financial markets, for those of us in Southeast Texas who have survived the typically very hot months of July, August and September, this week brought the very welcome first early fall-like