This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 May 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/May 18, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 May 2022

Unlike Yordan Alvarez, no one is expecting the Fed to stand back and admire their handiwork after this weeks 50 basis point increase in the Fed Discount Rate.  Similar to Yordan, their effort is more of a single and not a home run.*  As such, incoming data for April reinforce the expectations of the WF Economics team for another 50 bp hike in June.

 

Aside from Astros and Fed action, the latest economic data suggest supply challenges worsened in April. Delivery times lengthened, and while employers continued to add jobs at a solid pace, the supply of labor weakened. Price pressure has remained elevated as a result.




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More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.

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An unexpected spike in jobless claims is a sign that cracks are forming in the labor market. Higher mortgage rates look to be hindering a housing market rebound.

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Total payrolls rose by 263K in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7% and average hourly earning rising by 0.6%.

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The release of the transcript of President Trump\'s phone conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the whistle blower complaint overshadowed most of this week\'s economic reports and took bond yields modestly lower.

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The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate.

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Lock downs began to be lifted across most of the country by the end of May and the total amount of daily new coronavirus cases has been trending lower. But the flattening case count has not been consistent across the country.

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Data this week continued to suggest the U.S. economy hit rock bottom in April. Still, it is a long road to recovery and the pickup in economic activity will be gradual.

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The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.

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In April, employers added 253K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. During the same month, the ISM services index edged up to 51.9, while the ISM manufacturing index improved to 47.1.

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Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.


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