Global - Global Economy Continues to Recoup Lost Ground
- There were more signs of global recovery this week and PMI surveys improved further across the world. Indeed, the global manufacturing and services PMIs rose above the break even 50 level, suggesting the global economy has returned to positive growth in Q3.
- The Euro zone economy showed increased momentum in June as retail sales returned to pre-pandemic level and industrial output rose for the region’s four largest economies. We expect that improved Euro zone momentum carried into Q3. Meanwhile, the recovery is slower in Latin America, where Brazil and Mexico both still appear to be contracting.
U.S. - Service Elevator
- Despite rising virus case counts in July, unexpected strength in the service sector was evident in the economic data this week.
- The better-than-expected July jobs report was driven primarily by hiring in the service sector, which accounted for 1.42 million of the overall 1.76 million jobs added in the month.
- The ISM index for the service sector was arguably the biggest economic surprise of the week climbing to 58.1 with some sub components reaching multi-year highs.
- It remains a long road to recovery and the virus still sets the timetable, but numbers moved in the right direction this week.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2021
The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone\'s throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart).
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 10, 2020
As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 30, 2020
The recent surge in COVID-19 cases indicates that elected officials re-opened the economy too soon, that too many Americans are flaunting social distancing guidelines, and that the virus is likely to be around longer than we’d hoped.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 16, 2021
Back to the economy, issues with supply constraints remains a broken-record reference, but data this week highlighted the economy\'s resilience in spite of those continuing problems.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2021
Economic data this week indicated that the ongoing expansion still has some momentum despite some familiar headwinds, though this week\'s releases were largely overshadowed by a busy week on Capitol Hill.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 15, 2020
Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 22, 2020
European activity is surging. Germany and Italy are leading the way, but France is close behind despite an ongoing rise in cases. The Google data are a bit outdated, but are hard to reconcile with today’s weak Eurozone services PMI figures.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 28, 2020
The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 15, 2020
The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 26, 2021
This week\'s lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week\'s blowout retail sales report.