This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 July 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jul 18, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 July 2020

U.S. - A Glimpse of the Rebound that Might Have Been

  • Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery. The chart to the right plotting the level of retail sales offers a great example: that is about as close to a V as you get.
  • But the recovery is in jeopardy of being held back by the very thing that got us into this mess to begin with. Corona virus infections continue to mount and even hit a single-day record north of 78K on Thursday, as officials and businesses are increasingly requiring residents and customers to wear masks to help stop the spread.

 

Global - Central Banks on Hold; China Data Somewhat Mixed

  • The European Central Bank and Bank of Canada both met this week. As expected, no major policy changes were made and both central banks remain committed to keep interest rates low and asset purchases in place for the time being.
  • China GDP data beat expectations, signaling the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is gathering momentum. While the Q2 headline GDP print was stellar, June retail sales missed consensus expectations and may be calling into question the strength of the recovery as we head into the second half of the year.



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