This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 October 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 10, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 October 2020

U.S Overview - Full Recovery by Mid-2021…With Mitigating Factors

In the immediate fallout after the lockdowns in the early stages of this pandemic, there was a lot of discussion about the shape of the recovery. From the outset, we have taken the position that consumer spending would snap back fairly quickly due to the unprecedented amount of stimulus that policymakers implemented earlier this year. But, we also argued that it would take some time to fully dig out of the deep hole that the economy fell into earlier this year.

International Overview - Global Growth Outlook Improves Modestly

Our forecast for the global economy has improved, although the upward revision is relatively modest. This month, we revised our global GDP forecast higher and now forecast a contraction of 4.0%, a modest improvement from 4.3% last month. While most of the upward revision comes from an improved outlook in the United States, the outlook for some international economies has also improved. In particular, we see slightly stronger GDP prospects in Canada, Japan and New Zealand, while in Europe, we expect smaller economic declines in Sweden and Norway.




This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 September 2019

The Federal Reserve reduced the fed funds rate 25 bps this week, continuing to cite economic weakness overseas and muted inflation pressures.

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As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.

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The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time. The housing market continues to buckle under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 4 October 2019

Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.

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Stronger-than-expected inflation, underpinned by the mildly hawkish minutes from the January FOMC meeting, drove a move higher in mortgage rates.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 January 2020

Mild weather helped housing starts surge 16.9% in December to a 1.61 million-unit pace, the highest in 13 years. Manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed both rose more than expected in December.

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It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 April 2022

What do pollen and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have in common? Answer; both are hitting new highs. This week’s U.S. economic data was led by the largest month monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since September 2005.

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The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 11.7 points to 57.1, reflecting the broadening re-opening of the economy.

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On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.


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