This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 October 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 10, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 October 2020

U.S Overview - Full Recovery by Mid-2021…With Mitigating Factors

In the immediate fallout after the lockdowns in the early stages of this pandemic, there was a lot of discussion about the shape of the recovery. From the outset, we have taken the position that consumer spending would snap back fairly quickly due to the unprecedented amount of stimulus that policymakers implemented earlier this year. But, we also argued that it would take some time to fully dig out of the deep hole that the economy fell into earlier this year.

International Overview - Global Growth Outlook Improves Modestly

Our forecast for the global economy has improved, although the upward revision is relatively modest. This month, we revised our global GDP forecast higher and now forecast a contraction of 4.0%, a modest improvement from 4.3% last month. While most of the upward revision comes from an improved outlook in the United States, the outlook for some international economies has also improved. In particular, we see slightly stronger GDP prospects in Canada, Japan and New Zealand, while in Europe, we expect smaller economic declines in Sweden and Norway.




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The FOMC hiked the federal funds rate by 25 bps on Wednesday amid continued strength in the labor market and elevated inflation.

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Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-the-necks. In spite of all the difficulties, the Economic whizzes in the WF Economics team have upgraded their forecast for full-year 2021 U.S.

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The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.

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Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%.

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Employment growth was broad-based, though reliant on a 87K gain in health care & social assistance. Modest gains from construction, financial activities and hospitality also contributed to private sector job growth.

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The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.

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This week\'s lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week\'s blowout retail sales report.

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Retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.3% in October, reflecting the ongoing strength of the consumer. Control group sales, a major input to GDP, also increased 0.3%.


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