This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 October 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 12, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 October 2020

U.S. - Slow Data Week Puts More Focus on Policy

  • Weekly first time unemployment claims highlighted an extraordinarily slow week for economic news. Jobless claims fell slightly but continuing claims fell by one million.
  • The ISM non-manufacturing survey handily beat expectation, rising 0.9 points to 57.8.
  • Job openings, as tallied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ JOLTS survey, fell by 200,000 to 6.49 million in August.
  • The nation’s trade deficit widened sharply to $67.1 billion in August, as consumer spending on goods has rebounded well ahead of many other nations.

 

Global - RBA on Hold; Canadian Job Gains Accelerate

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate and three-year yield target unchanged at 0.25%, as expected, but reiterated that fiscal and monetary support will be required for some time. Following the RBA meeting, Australia released its fiscal plan, which is now expected to push the cash deficit to a record high.
  • Mexican inflation remained above the central bank’s upper bound inflation target of 4% in September, while Brazil’s September IPCA consumer prices rose to 3.14% year-over-year. Elsewhere, Canadian employment growth unexpectedly accelerated in September, while the unemployment rate slid to 9.0%.



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As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 May 2022

Unlike Yordan Alvarez, no one is expecting the Fed to stand back and admire their handiwork after this weeks 50 basis point increase in the Fed Discount Rate. Similar to Yordan, their effort is more of a single and not a home run.

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While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19August 2022

July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection...

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 26August 2022

I can understand how the opportunity to participate in lots of scintillating economic policy discussions could make fishing look exciting in comparison.

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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 October 2020

Data continue to reflect an economy digging itself out of the lockdown-induced slump.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19 May 2023

Economic data continue to suggest the U.S. economy is only gradually losing momentum. Consumers continue to spend, and industrial and housing activity are seeing some stabilization.

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In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead.

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February\'s employment data showed the economy had strong momentum, but that seems pretty dated now with Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed\'s shift to a more hawkish tone on monetary policy.


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