U.S. - Hiring Report Telling You Be of Good Cheer
- The latest hiring data are an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is withstanding the global slowdown and continued trade-related uncertainty. Solid labor market conditions echo the Fed’s assessment that the current stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. The FOMC will be on hold next week.
- Despite encouraging signals from the labor market, the trade war remains a headwind. Murmurs of a possible “Phase I” trade deal flooded news headlines this week, but continue to be void of details. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on manufacturing and has permeated into the service sector, though not nearly to the same extent.
Global Review - Are We There Yet?
- While the global bias remains towards easier monetary policy, there are some hints we may be getting closer to the end of this global easing cycle. Among the several announcements this past week, central banks in Australia, Canada, India and Chile all held rates steady, while Canada and Chile also hinted at rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future.
- The news from the Eurozone was mixed this week. The Q3 GDP details showed a reasonably solid domestic economy as underlying final domestic demand rose 0.4% quarter-overquarter, but Eurozone retail sales and German industrial output both registered large declines in October.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 19, 2020
A March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found most exploration firms need West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI) at $49 per barrel or higher to profitably drill a well.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 24, 2020
A recent strong report from the National Association of Homebuilders set the tone for another round of strong housing data. The NAHB index rose two points to a record high 85.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 15, 2020
The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 12, 2021
The manufacturing sector is showing a great deal of resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing survey exceeding expectations, at 60.7, and factory orders remaining strong.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 12, 2020
Weekly first time unemployment claims highlighted an extraordinarily slow week for economic news. Jobless claims fell slightly but continuing claims fell by one million.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 14, 2020
In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 28, 2019
The release of the transcript of President Trump\'s phone conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the whistle blower complaint overshadowed most of this week\'s economic reports and took bond yields modestly lower.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 04, 2020
It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 23, 2019
Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2021
The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone\'s throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart).