This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 November 2019

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Nov 28, 2019

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 November 2019

U.S. - Fundamentals Continue to Support Festive Holiday Spending

  • Despite easing for the fourth consecutive month, confidence still remains near its cycle high in November as consumers continue to focus on their own economic prospects, while discounting political drama out of Washington D.C. and concerns from abroad.
  • The health of the labor market, low gasoline prices and a stock market near record highs continue to underpin our expectations for solid consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, albeit at a substantially slower pace than the robust rates seen in the prior two quarters.

 

Global Review - Boris Johnson Commands Lead in U.K. Polls

  • A series of U.K. general election polls released this week continue to show Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party with a significant lead over the opposition Labor Party. The current margin of support points to a parliamentary majority for the Conservatives, although much can still change over the next two weeks leading into the election.
  • It was a quiet start to the week for international data releases. Sentiment figures from Germany rebounded very slightly but still point to especially sluggish economic growth, while revisions to Mexican GDP figures showed the economy contracted for three straight quarters starting in Q4-2018.



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President Trump became the third president in U.S. history to be impeached by the House, but removal by the Senate is highly unlikely. The House also passed the USMCA, which should be signed into law in early 2020.

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Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery.

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Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.

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During January, payrolls jumped by 517K, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.5%-4.75% this week.

Economic Uncertainty Seems Removed Going Into The New Year 2020

The U.S. economy continues to expand, albeit at a moderate pace. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in Q3/19.

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After a revised look at GDP this week suggested the second quarter may not have been quite as bad as first estimated, attention shifts to the current quarter.

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Over the past year, the housing market has become white-hot.

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