This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 November 2019

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Nov 28, 2019

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 November 2019

U.S. - Fundamentals Continue to Support Festive Holiday Spending

  • Despite easing for the fourth consecutive month, confidence still remains near its cycle high in November as consumers continue to focus on their own economic prospects, while discounting political drama out of Washington D.C. and concerns from abroad.
  • The health of the labor market, low gasoline prices and a stock market near record highs continue to underpin our expectations for solid consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, albeit at a substantially slower pace than the robust rates seen in the prior two quarters.

 

Global Review - Boris Johnson Commands Lead in U.K. Polls

  • A series of U.K. general election polls released this week continue to show Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party with a significant lead over the opposition Labor Party. The current margin of support points to a parliamentary majority for the Conservatives, although much can still change over the next two weeks leading into the election.
  • It was a quiet start to the week for international data releases. Sentiment figures from Germany rebounded very slightly but still point to especially sluggish economic growth, while revisions to Mexican GDP figures showed the economy contracted for three straight quarters starting in Q4-2018.



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June 2020 Economy At A Glance

The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 November 2019

Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 April 2020

Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.

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Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month\'s 227,000-job drop.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 4 October 2019

Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.

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CPI increases continue to sizzle like this weekend’s temperature, putting consumers in a worse mood than Texas Rangers fans (with their 9.5 games back $500 million middle infield).

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Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery.

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Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.


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