Inflation remains uncomfortably high in the United States. In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead, while the Producer Price Index and NFIB small business survey also suggested more meaningful disinflation is on its way. Maybe that’s why the bond market is currently priced for 75 bps of Fed easing by the end of the year. One interpretation of that pricing is a 25% probability of 300 bps worth of easing coupled with a 75% probability of no easing. Count me in the 75% and still perplexed why some think this simple return to historically “normal” interest rate levels should somehow lead to any easing back to abnormally lower rates later this year. That said, I’m wrong about so many things, so frequently, that a view contrary to mine may be the safe play.
28 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2021
In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 11, 2020
The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 17, 2021
Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 January 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 09, 2021
Economic data came in largely as expected this week and suggest continued economic recovery.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 October 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 02, 2023
The U.S. economy expanded at a stronger-than-expected pace in Q3, with real GDP increasing at a robust 4.9% annualized rate.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 4 October 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 05, 2019
Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 28, 2019
A series of U.K. general election polls released this week continue to show Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party with a significant lead over the opposition Labor Party.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 13, 2020
The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 11.7 points to 57.1, reflecting the broadening re-opening of the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 October 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 15, 2021
September\'s disappointing employment report clearly takes center stage over this week\'s other economic reports. Nonfarm employment rose by just 194,000 jobs, as employers continue to have trouble finding the workers they need.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 February 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 20, 2023
Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.
