Inflation remains uncomfortably high in the United States. In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead, while the Producer Price Index and NFIB small business survey also suggested more meaningful disinflation is on its way. Maybe that’s why the bond market is currently priced for 75 bps of Fed easing by the end of the year. One interpretation of that pricing is a 25% probability of 300 bps worth of easing coupled with a 75% probability of no easing. Count me in the 75% and still perplexed why some think this simple return to historically “normal” interest rate levels should somehow lead to any easing back to abnormally lower rates later this year. That said, I’m wrong about so many things, so frequently, that a view contrary to mine may be the safe play.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 August 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 26, 2020
After a revised look at GDP this week suggested the second quarter may not have been quite as bad as first estimated, attention shifts to the current quarter.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19August 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 23, 2022
July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection...
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 December 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 21, 2019
President Trump became the third president in U.S. history to be impeached by the House, but removal by the Senate is highly unlikely. The House also passed the USMCA, which should be signed into law in early 2020.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 February 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 20, 2023
Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 23, 2019
Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 May 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 25, 2021
Over the past year, the housing market has become white-hot.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 December 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 21, 2023
core CPI remained elevated in November at a 4.0% annual rate, a string of slower monthly prints suggests that disinflation has more room to run.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 February 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 14, 2022
Deep thought for the week, if a tree falls in the forest, or an Olympics occurs, and no one is there to hear it or see it, did it really occur?
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 July 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 31, 2022
Unlike the local temperatures, data released this week showed U.S. economic growth modestly declined in Q2.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 May 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 15, 2020
April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.
