This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 4 October 2019

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U.S - Survey Says

  • Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.
  • While hiring is likely to continue to slow, there is evidence the labor market remains right. Squaring the September hiring data with the weak survey evidence, the Fed looks set to cut rates another 25 bps, as early as October.
  • The GM worker strike didn�t impact the September jobs report, but for our take on how it may impact economic data, please see Topic of the Week on Page 9.


Global - Disappointing Data and More Central Bank Cuts

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced its Cash Rate another 25 bps to 0.75%, marking the third interest rate cut from the Australian central bank this year and bringing the policy rate to its lowest point on record.
  • The latest data from the Eurozone has been concerning, and while we do not think a full-scale recession is imminent, we acknowledge that the risks of a recession are growing.
  • The Reserve Bank of India cut its repurchase rate 25 bps to 5.15%, after already reducing its main policy rate nearly 100 bps this year to give the economy a boost.

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