This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 September 2019

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U.S - Politics Takes Center Stage

  • The release of the transcript of President Trump's phone conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the whistle blower complaint overshadowed most of this week's economic reports and took bond yields modestly lower.
  • Consumer confidence came in weaker than expected in September, falling 9.1 points to 125.1. The jobs plentiful series fell back from its cycle high hit the previous month.
  • Durable goods orders rose 0.2% in August, but nondefense capital goods orders fell by a like amount and were revised lower for the prior month, indicating that capital spending continues to lose momentum.


Global - Eurozone Economy Continues to Falter

  • Preliminary data on economic activity in the Eurozone in September were disappointingly weak, signaling the slowdown there will not subside by the end of the third quarter.
  • Data on the country-specific level were not much better. The PMI for manufacturing in Germany declined to 41.4 in September, down from 43.5 in August and a cycle high of 63.3 in December 2017.
  • Mexico's central bank continued to ease monetary policy this week, cutting its main policy rate 25 bps, the second such move this year.

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