This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 November 2019

Date: 23 November, 2019 | By : 

U.S. - Steady for Now

  • Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.
  • Mixed reports this week about the prospects of a Phase I trade deal took some of the steam out of the recent market rally. We continue to expect a stalemate, while recognizing the significant downside risks of a deterioration in trade negotiations.
  • Housing starts and existing home sales both rose solidly in October as lower mortgage rates boost residential activity.

Global Review - USMCA Getting Close?

  • Encouragingly, the outlook for USMCA has improved of late, with key Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives signaling that they could sign off on the trade pact soon, perhaps even by year-end, though we doubt it could be voted on that quickly.
  • Core inflation in Japan remained tepid in October, at just 0.3% year-over-year, despite an increase in the country’s VAT. The implementation of free preschool education helped offset the VAT’s upward pressure on the consumer price index.
  • As the data continue to come out, it appears increasingly likely the fourth quarter will be yet another quarter of weak-but positive economic growth in the U.K. and the Eurozone.

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