This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 May 2020

Date: 25 May, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - Wait and See

  • The re-opening of the country is getting underway, with all 50 states starting to roll back restrictions.
  • It remains too early to assess the effect of the re-opening on corona virus case growth, which continues to slow in a fairly broad-based manner, despite an impressive—albeit late-in-the-game—ramp-up in testing.
  • Nearly 2.5 million Americans filed initial unemployment claims the week ended May 16, bringing the cumulative total over the past nine weeks to more than 38 million.


Global - U.S.-China Tensions Building; EM Central Banks Easing

  • Along with the intensification of COVID-19, U.S.-China relations have started to intensify again as well. Heightened rhetoric from the U.S. administration has recently turned to action, and while we are not yet ready to build any material escalations or additional tariffs into our forecasts, we acknowledge U.S.-China trade tensions could be deteriorating.
  • Multiple central banks in emerging markets met this week to assess monetary policy with rate cuts occurring across Asia and EMEA. With inflation on a downward trajectory, additional monetary policy space to cut rates has been created and as of now, we believe EM central banks will continue to ease policy.


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