This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 October 2020

Date: 24 October, 2020 | By : 

Key takeaways from this week (Google data through October 16, Apple data through October 19) 

  • Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits. The U.S., Germany and Japan are more or less stable. These trends are more or less consistent with new COVID cases, as mobility is suffering most in countries in which COVID outbreaks are more severe. Many French cities remain under nightly curfews and Italy recently moved to impose a curfew in the Lombardy region. 
  • U.S. activity is still flat-lining. The stability in U.S. retail/recreation visits is remarkable. It has been stuck right around 15% below the January baseline since June. Most notable at the state level is the recent drop in activity in New York, while Florida, California and Texas are showing a slight uptick. 
  • Canada is emerging as a laggard, while Japan is pulling ahead. Canadian activity has slowed markedly in recent weeks and is only just ahead of U.K. figures. Canada’s COVID cases are steadily rising, and certain parts of the country have been designated as “red zones,” in which bars, restaurants and other venues are forced to close. Japan, meanwhile, is seeing far fewer new cases of COVID and has seen sturdier retail/recreation activity trends.


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